LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook 2022 Q1

Jahen Rezki, Syahda Sabrina, Nauli A. Desdiani, Teuku Riefky, Amalia Cesarina, Meila Husna and Faradina Alifia Maizar
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Syahda Sabrina: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Nauli A. Desdiani: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Meila Husna: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Faradina Alifia Maizar: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)

No 202201, LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook from LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia

Abstract: The domestic spread of Delta variant has dragged down the promising upward trend of economic growth from 7.07% (y.o.y) in Q2 2021 to only 3.51% (y.o.y) in Q3 2021 as consumption declined and business activity in various sectors that relies on physical activity was halted. The implementation of PPKM to limit the transmission of Covid-19 hit severely the transportation & storage and accomodation & FnB sectors. Aside from agriculture, Indonesian main economic sectors, such as manufacturing, wholesale & retail trade, and construction, also experienced slower growth in Q3 2021. The second wave has also slammed brakes on all expenditure components of GDP, particularly the household consumption as the biggest contributor of GDP, which was only grew by 1.03% (y.o.y) in Q3 2021, down from 5.93% (y.o.y) in previous quarter. Amidst the ongoing crisis, credit performance has shown a favourable outlook for overall 2021 as it has gradually increased along with the improved business and consumers sentiment as economic recovery intensifies compared to its ruinous trend during 2020. However, the inflation rate throughout 2021 remains below BI’s target range. The low inflation in 2021 was influenced by domestic demand that was not yet fully recovered.

Keywords: gdp; —; economic; quarterly; —; economic; outlook; —; inflation; —; macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-01, Revised 2022-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-sea
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