LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook 2020 Q3

Jahen Rezki, Syahda Sabrina, Nauli A. Desdiani, Teuku Riefky, Amalia Cesarina and Meila Husna
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Syahda Sabrina: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Nauli A. Desdiani: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)
Meila Husna: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)

No 202003, LPEM FEBUI Quarterly Economic Outlook from LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia

Abstract: It has been five months since the first announcement of Covid-19’s confirmed case in Indonesia on the early March. The massive widespread of the virus has brought a catastrophic impact, not only on human health but also on economic consequences. The set of measurements, such as global travel restrictions and social distancing, affect nearly all economic sectors. Unsurprisingly, the disruption was reflected by the lower-than-expected economic growth in Q1-2020 at 2.97% compared to the traditional consensus of 3.5-4%. The main contributors to the GDP, such as manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, construction, and mining and quarrying sectors, which accumulatively accounted for more than half of the GDP, experienced a contraction in Q1-2020. At the same time, household consumption slumped to 2.84%, far below 5.01% growth recorded in the same period last year. The disruption in domestic demand is reflected by the drop in almost all subsectors in consumption.

Keywords: gdp; —; economic; quarterly; —; economic; outlook; —; inflation; —; macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-03, Revised 2020-03
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https://www.lpem.org/repec/lpe/queouts/IEO202003.pdf First version, 2020 (application/pdf)

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