Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects on Duration Outcomes under Censoring, Selection, and Noncompliance

German Blanco (), Xuan Chen (), Carlos A. Flores () and Alfonso Flores-Lagunes ()
Additional contact information
German Blanco: Illinois State University
Xuan Chen: Renmin University of China
Carlos A. Flores: California Polytechnic State University

No 11864, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: We consider the problem of assessing the effects of a treatment on duration outcomes using data from a randomized evaluation with noncompliance. For such settings, we derive nonparametric sharp bounds for average and quantile treatment effects addressing three pervasive problems simultaneously: self-selection into the spell of interest, endogenous censoring of the duration outcome, and noncompliance with the assigned treatment. Ignoring any of these issues could yield biased estimates of the effects. Notably, the proposed bounds do not impose the independent censoring assumption - which is commonly used to address censoring but is likely to fail in important settings - or exclusion restrictions to address endogeneity of censoring and selection. Instead, they employ monotonicity and stochastic dominance assumptions. To illustrate the use of these bounds we assess the effects of the Job Corps (JC) training program on its participants' last complete employment spell duration. Our estimated bounds suggest that JC participation may increase the average duration of the last complete employment spell before week 208 after randomization by at least 5.6 log points (5.8 percent) for individuals who comply with their treatment assignment and experience a complete employment spell whether or not they enrolled in JC. The estimated quantile treatment effects suggest the impacts may be heterogeneous, and strengthen our conclusions based on the estimated average effects.

Keywords: independent censoring; duration outcomes; partial identification; principal stratification; job corps (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 C24 C41 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 pages
Date: 2018-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-lab
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Published - published in: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2020, 38 (4), 901 - 920

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Related works:
Journal Article: Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects on Duration Outcomes Under Censoring, Selection, and Noncompliance (2020)
Working Paper: Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects on Duration Outcomes under Censoring, Selection, and Noncompliance (2018)
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