Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes

Gerard Berg, Antoine Bozio and Monica Costa Dias
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Gerard Berg: University of Bristol [Bristol]

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Abstract: Causal effects of a policy change on hazard rates of a duration outcome variable are not identified from a comparison of spells before and after the policy change if there is unobserved heterogeneity in the effects and no model structure is imposed. We develop a discontinuity approach that overcomes this by considering spells that include the moment of the policy change and by exploiting variation in the moment at which different cohorts are exposed to the policy change. We prove identification of average treatment effects on hazard rates without model structure. We estimate these effects by kernel hazard regression. We use the introduction of the NDYP program for young unemployed individuals in the UK to estimate average program participation effects on the exit rate to work as well as anticipation effects.

Keywords: Causality; Regression discontinuity; Selectivity; Kernel hazard estimation; Local linear regression; Average treatment effect; Job search assistance; Youth unemployment; Policy evaluation; Hazard rate; Identification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-07
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02973655v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published in Quantitative Economics, 2020, 11 (3), pp.871-916. ⟨10.3982/QE639⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes (2020)
Working Paper: Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes (2020)
Working Paper: Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes (2018)
Working Paper: Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes (2015)
Working Paper: Policy Discontinuity and Duration Outcomes (2014)
Working Paper: Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02973655

DOI: 10.3982/QE639

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