Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda

David Tucket, Antoine Mandel, Diana Mangalagiu, Allen Abramson, Jochen Hinkel, Konstantinos Katsikopoulos, Alan Kirman, Thierry Malleret, Igor Mozetic, Paul Ormerod, Robert Elliot Smith, Tommaso Venturini () and Angela Wilkinson
Additional contact information
David Tucket: UCL - University College of London [London]
Diana Mangalagiu: RMS - Reims Management School
Allen Abramson: UCL - University College of London [London]
Igor Mozetic: IJS - Jozef Stefan Institute [Ljubljana]
Paul Ormerod: UCL - University College of London [London]
Robert Elliot Smith: UCL - University College of London [London]
Tommaso Venturini: médialab - médialab (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Angela Wilkinson: OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

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Abstract: The financial crisis of 2008 was unforeseen partly because the academic theories that underpin policy making do not sufficiently account for uncertainty and complexity or learned and evolved human capabilities for managing them. Mainstream theories of decision making tend to be strongly normative and based on wishfully unrealistic "idealized" modeling. In order to develop theories of actual decision making under uncertainty, we need new methodologies that account for how human (sentient) actors often manage uncertain situations "well enough." Some possibly helpful methodologies, drawing on digital science, focus on the role of emotions in determining people's choices; others examine how people construct narratives that enable them to act; still others combine qualitative with quantitative data.

Keywords: Decision Science; Uncertainty; Policy-making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-02057279
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society, 2015, 27 (2), pp.213 - 242. ⟨10.1080/08913811.2015.1037078⟩

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Related works:
Working Paper: Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda (2015)
Working Paper: Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda (2015)
Working Paper: Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02057279

DOI: 10.1080/08913811.2015.1037078

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