A Convex Hull Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Trade Openness and Growth

Michael Funke and Marc Gronwald ()

Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers from Hamburg University, Department of Economics

Abstract: In this paper, we apply a convex hull approach to counterfactual analysis of trade openness and growth. The experiments we choose evaluate the importance of trade openness for growth across African countries. Specifically, we ask the question "what would happen if African countries were more open?". The evidence indicates that several countries don´t fall within the convex hull of the observed data and therefore counterfactual inferences are risky. This conclusion is at odds with the literature arguing that greater trade openness would unequivocally lead to higher growth in Africa.

Keywords: openness; economic growth; robustness; counterfactuals; convex hull (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 O11 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-06
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Working Paper: A Convex Hull Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Trade Openness and Growth (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ham:qmwops:20906

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