Fight the Pandemic, Save the Economy: Lessons from the 1918 Flu

Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck and Emil Verner

No 20200327, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: The COVID-19 outbreak has sparked urgent questions about the impact of pandemics, and associated countermeasures, on the real economy. Policymakers are in uncharted territory, with little guidance on what the expected economic fallout will be and how the crisis should be managed. In this blog post, we use insights from a recent research paper to discuss two sets of questions. First, what are the real economic effects of a pandemic—and are these effects temporary or persistent? Second, how does the local public health response affect the economic severity of the pandemic? In particular, do non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing have economic costs, or do policies that slow the spread of the pandemic also reduce its economic severity?

Keywords: non-pharmaceutical interventions; real effects; Pandemic; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E0 E32 N12 N32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-03-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-hea, nep-his, nep-mac and nep-pke
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