Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy

No WP-2016-14, Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Abstract: We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the policy rate signals the central bank?s view about macroeconomic developments to price setters. The model is estimated with likelihood methods on a U.S. data set that includes the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a measure of price setters? inflation expectations. This model improves upon existing perfect information models in explaining why, in the data, inflation expectations respond with delays to monetary impulses and remain disanchored for years. In the 1970s, U.S. monetary policy is found to signal persistent inflationary shocks, explaining why inflation and inflation expectations were so persistently heightened. The signaling effects of monetary policy also explain why inflation expectations adjusted more sluggishly than inflation after the robust monetary tightening of the 1980s.

Keywords: Disanchoring of inflation expectations; heterogeneous beliefs; endogenous signals; Bayesian VARs; Bayesian counterfactual analysis; Delphic effects of monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C52 D83 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50 pages
Date: 2016-09-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-fdg, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (66)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Signalling Effects of Monetary Policy (2017)
Working Paper: Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy (2013)
Working Paper: Signaling effects of monetary policy (2012)
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