A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011

Travis Berge and Oscar Jorda

No 2011-28, Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract: This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against others ?this we do with modern statistical tools of signal detection theory. We also use these tools to determine which of several existing economic activity indexes provide a better signal on the underlying state of the economy. We conclude by evaluating candidate leading indicators and hence construct recession probability forecasts up to 12 months in the future.

Keywords: Business cycles; Spain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-his and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Journal Article: A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011 (2013)
Working Paper: A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011 (2011)
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