CYCLE DU CREDIT ET CYCLE DES AFFAIRES DANS LES PAYS DE LA CEMAC

Pamphile Mezui-Mbeng

No 1202, Cahiers du CEREFIGE from CEREFIGE (Centre Europeen de Recherche en Economie Financiere et Gestion des Entreprises), Universite de Lorraine

Abstract: This article analyzes potential interactions between the cyclic fluctuations in credit and activity within CEMAC countries. Cycles are extracted using a pass-band filter, then characterized over the period 1960-2008 according to the Bry and Boshan algorithm. Co-movements and concordance analysis establish the procyclical character of credit in CEMAC countries. Cointegration and causality tests specify nature of interactions between the cycles in different countries. Indeed, in Chad credit cycle causes activity cycle; in Gabon and Congo, a feedback effect is observed; in Cameroon and CAR causality seems less obvious. Finally, results reveal specificities in banks behavior towards financing of activity in the CEMAC area.

Keywords: credit cycle; business cycle; pass-band filter; co-movements; concordance index. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E30 E32 E44 E47 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27pages
Date: 2012, Revised 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-mac
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