Assessing China's Carbon Intensity Pledge for 2020: Stringency and Credibility Issues and Their Implications

No 113, Economics Study Area Working Papers from East-West Center, Economics Study Area

Abstract: Just prior to the Copenhagen climate summit, China pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 40-45% by 2020 relative to its 2005 levels to help reach an international climate change agreement at Copenhagen or beyond. This raises the issue of whether such a pledge is ambitious or just represents business as usual. To put China's climate pledge into perspective, this paper examines whether this proposed carbon intensity goal for 2020 is as challenging as the energy-saving goals set in the current 11th five-year economic blueprint, to what extent it drives China's emissions below its projected baseline levels, and whether China will fulfill its part of a coordinated global commitment to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere at the desirable level. Given that China's pledge is in the form of carbon intensity, the paper shows that GDP figures are even more crucial for determining impacts on energy or carbon intensity than are energy consumption and emissions data by examining the revisions of China's GDP figures and energy consumption in recent years. Moreover, the paper emphasizes that China's proposed carbon intensity target not only needs to be seen as ambitious, but more importantly it needs to be credible. Finally, it is concluded with a suggestion that international climate change negotiations need to focus on 2030 as the targeted date to cap the greenhouse gas emissions of the world's two largest emitters in a legally binding global agreement.

JEL-codes: Q42 Q43 Q48 Q52 Q53 Q54 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: pages 18
Date: 2010-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Assessing China’s carbon intensity pledge for 2020: stringency and credibility issues and their implications (2011)
Working Paper: Assessing China’s Carbon Intensity Pledge for 2020: Stringency and Credibility Issues and their Implications (2010)
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