The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: the case of the 2006 Italian general elections

Laura Fumagalli () and Emanuela Sala

No 2011-29, ISER Working Paper Series from Institute for Social and Economic Research

Abstract: Pre-election polls sometimes fail to reach the purpose for which they are carried out: to provide accurate predictions of electoral out-comes. By looking at the 2006 Italian General Elections, this paper aims to assess the role that different factors play in determining the accuracy of the pre-election polls. We find strong evidence that the quality of the sampling frame and non-respondents may contribute to biasing the polls results. This paper also aims to show how to over-come some of the limitations of the survey data by using statistical matching techniques and weighing procedures.

Date: 2011-11-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-for and nep-pol
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