Vulnerability to Climate Change and Communal Conflicts: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia

Sara Balestri and Raul Caruso ()

No dipe0036, DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica from Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE)

Abstract: This paper examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the likelihood and severity of communal violence, with a particular emphasis on delineating large-scale regional patterns. Specifically, the analysis centres on Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia - both regions being predominantly characterized by rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive economic activities - spanning the years 1995 to 2021. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as a multidimensional measure for propensity of societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher likelihood and severity of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, in South/South-East Asia, results suggest that current climate variability, measured as rainfall deviations within the period, exerts a greater effect on communal violence outbreak than overall vulnerability to climate change. In both regions, greater access to productive means is significantly associated to the reduction of communal violence.

Keywords: communal violence; vulnerability; climate change; conflicts; Africa; Asia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 O13 Q54 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35
Date: 2024-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dev, nep-env and nep-sea
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http://dipartimenti.unicatt.it/politica-economica-DIPE0036.pdf First version, 2024 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Vulnerability to Climate Change and Communal Conflicts: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia (2024)
Working Paper: Vulnerability to climate change and communal conflicts: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia (2021)
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