News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact

Müller, Gernot, Alexander Dietrich, Keith Kuester and Raphael Schoenle
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gernot J. Müller

No 16766, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: A tailor-made survey documents consumer perceptions of the U.S.~economy’s response to a large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer perceptions regarding output and inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. A business-cycle model calibrated to the consumer views provides an interpretation. The rise in household uncertainty amplifies the pandemic recession by a factor of three. Different perceptions about monetary policy can explain why consumers and professional forecasters agree on the recessionary impact, but have sharply divergent views about inflation.

Keywords: Consumer expectations; Survey; Large shock; Uncertainty; Monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C83 E32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-12
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP16766 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Journal Article: News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact (2022)
Working Paper: News and Uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey Evidence and Short-Run Economic Impact (2021)
Working Paper: News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16766

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP16766

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().