Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations

Danny Quah ()

No 1236, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a non-stationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables the study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the United States, the leading state (regardless of which it happens to be) contains strong predictive power for aggregate fluctuations. This effect is difficult to understand if only aggregate disturbances affect aggregate business cycles through aggregate propagation mechanisms. Instead, a better picture might be one of a `wave' of regional dynamics, rippling across the national economy.

Keywords: Aggregate Disturbance; Business Cycle; Distribution Dynamics; Regional Fluctuation; Stochastic Kernel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C33 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995-09
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Journal Article: Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations (1996)
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