Asset Pricing When 'This Time is Different'

Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Michael Johannes and Lars A. Lochstoer
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Pierre Collin-Dufresne: Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Swiss Finance Institute, and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Michael Johannes: Columbia University
Lars A. Lochstoer: Columbia Business School

No 13-73, Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series from Swiss Finance Institute

Abstract: Recent evidence suggests that younger people update beliefs more in response to aggregate shocks than older people. We embed this generational learning bias in an equilibrium model where agents have recursive preferences and are uncertain about exogenous aggregate dynamics. The departure from rational expectations is statistically modest, but generates high average risk premiums varying at `generational' frequencies, a positive relation between past returns and agents' future return forecasts, and substantial and persistent over- and under-valuation. Consistent with the model, the price-dividend ratio is empirically more sensitive to macroeconomic shocks when the fraction of young in the population is higher.

Keywords: Asset; pricing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 70 pages
Date: 2013-12, Revised 2016-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1373

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