Tracking Unemployment in Wales through Recession and into Recovery

Michael Artis and Marianne Sensier ()

SERC Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Performance, LSE

Abstract: This paper assesses turning points in the economic cycle of Welsh unitary authorities by applying a mathematical algorithm to the claimant count unemployment data. All but one unitary authority has now emerged from recession (Anglesey being the exception). We also date the business cycle for the UK and country-level employment data and Wales has emerged from recession but Scotland is yet to exit recession. We estimate a logistic model which utilises housing sector and survey data to forecast the Welsh employment cycle. The model predicts that employment in Wales will continue to grow into 2011.

Keywords: classical business cycles; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E32 E37 E40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-lab
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http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/sercdp0079.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Tracking unemployment in Wales through recession and into recovery (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cep:sercdp:0079

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