Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil

Knut Are Aastveit, Jamie Cross () and Herman K. Djik ()
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Herman K. van Dijk ()

No No 03/2021, Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School

Abstract: We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier approaches that have been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing for sequentially updating of time-varying combination weights, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter-dependencies among models. To illustrate the usefulness of the method, we present an extensive set of empirical results about time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach systematically outperforms commonly used benchmark models and combination approaches, both in terms of point and density forecasts. The dynamic patterns of the estimated individual model weights are highly time-varying, reflecting a large time variation in the relative performance of the various individual models. The combination approach has built-in diagnostic information measures about forecast inaccuracy and/or model set incompleteness, which provide clear signals of model incompleteness during three crisis periods. To highlight that our approach also can be useful for policy analysis, we present a basic analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk.

Keywords: Oil price; Forecast density combination; Bayesian forecasting; Instabilities; Model uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2021-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-for, nep-ore and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2757472

Related works:
Journal Article: Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil (2023)
Working Paper: Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil (2021)
Working Paper: Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bny:wpaper:0099

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Helene Olsen ().