Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand

Mun Ho, Wolfgang Britz, Ruth Delzeit, Florian Leblanc, Roberto Roson, Franziska Schuenemann and Matthias Weitzel

Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

Abstract: Modelling and projecting consumption, investment and government demand by detailed commodities in CGE models poses many data and methodological challenges. We review the state of knowledge of modelling consumption of commodities (price and income elasticities and demographics), as well as the historical trends that we should be able to explain. We then discuss the current approaches taken in CGE models to project the trends in demand at various levels of commodity disaggregation. We examine the pros and cons of the various approaches to adjust parameters over time or using functions of time and suggest a research agenda to improve modelling and projection. We compare projections out to 2050 using LES, CES and AIDADS functions in the same CGE model to illustrate the size of the differences. In addition, we briefly discuss the allocation of total investment and government demand to individual commodities.

Keywords: Consumption demand systems; Long-term baseline; CGE models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D12 D58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/228656/1/95-823-1-PB.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand (2020)
Working Paper: Modelling consumption and constructing long-term baselines in final demand (2020)
Working Paper: Modelling consumption and constructing long-term baselines in final demand (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:228656

DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.050103AF

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().