Fiscal policy after the crisis: What role for fiscal policy in times of crisis, low interest rates and high public debts?

No 92, ZÖSS-Discussion Papers from University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS)

Abstract: In 2009, just before the full outbreak of the global financial crisis, Olivier Blanchard (2009) published an article giving a favourable appraisal of the state of macroeconomics. He came to this verdict on the basis that, after a long period of fierce theoretical debate, the discipline had converged on a model known as new consensus macroeconomics (NCM). In the models that made up NCM, fiscal policy played no role - or, to be more precise, fiscal policy had to follow a balanced-budget rule, with the task of stabilising an economy over the business cycle entrusted entirely to monetary policy (following a Taylor rule). And in the midst of the global financial crisis, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (2010) proposed the figure of 90% of GDP as a threshold level for public debt which, if exceeded, would harm economic growth, leaving fiscal austerity as the best way to trigger economic recovery. Only a decade later, the economics profession now appears to have taken a very different view on fiscal policy: in order to cope with the next economic crisis, resulting from the coronavirus pandemic, most economists recommend an active fiscal policy stance and even a huge increase in debt-to-GDP levels. This paper will shed some light on these developments in economic policymaking and explore the future of fiscal policy.

Keywords: Fiscal policy; public debt; stabilisation policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 H30 H62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-cwa, nep-mac and nep-pbe
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:cessdp:92

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