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Analysis of aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB SPF survey

Sami Oinonen and Maritta Paloviita

No 29/2014, Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland

Abstract: This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and forecast uncertainties using approach, which is based on a set of sub-panels of fixed composition. Our results indicate that the unbalanced panel data do not cause systematic distortions to aggregated survey information. However, micro level analysis of expectations would also be useful, especially in times of wide disagreement across forecasters and high levels of inflation uncertainty.

Keywords: survey data; expectations; changing panel composition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2014_029

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