Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows

Axel Börsch-Supan (), Alexander Ludwig and Joachim Winter ()
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Axel Börsch-Supan: Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Postal: L 13, 15, D-68131 Mannheim

No 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim

Abstract: We present a quantitative analysis of the effects of population aging and pension reform on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second, this process may be amplified when a pension reform shifts old-age provision towards more pre-funding. Third, while the patterns of population aging are similar in most countries, timing and initial conditions differ substantially. Hence, to the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will induce capital flows between countries. All three effects influence the rate of return to capital and interact with the demand for capital in production and with labor supply. In order to quantify these effects, we develop a computational general equilibrium model. We feed this multi-country overlapping generations model with detailed long-term demographic projections for seven world regions. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from fast-aging regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial but that trends are reversed when households decumulate savings. We also conclude that closed-economy models of pension reform miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.25 August, 2004

Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2004-12-22
Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, VW Foundation, the Land of Baden Württemberg, the Gesamtverband der deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft, and the US Social Security Administration is gratefully acknowledged.
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