Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: An application to Viet Nam

Jesse Lastunen and Matteo Richiardi

No wp-2021-84, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries. To this aim, we exploit variation in financial indexes at the industry level and relate them to the expected duration of the crisis for each industry, under the assumption that the main shocks to financial prices in recent months have come from COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemic; Forecasting; Finance; Viet Nam; Shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Journal Article: Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: An application to Vietnam (2023)
Working Paper: Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: an application to Viet Nam (2021)
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