Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policies on Long-Run Growth

No 02-028/3, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: The issue of whether the public sector enhances or retards long-run economic growth has been debated passionately in recent years. In this paper we use meta-analysis to shed light on the issue. A sample of 93 published studies, yielding 123 meta-observations, is used to examine the robustness of the evidence regarding the impact of fiscal policy on growth. We focus on five fiscal policy areas: general government consumption, tax rates, education expenditure, defence, and public infrastructure. Several meta-analytical techniques are applied, including frequency tabulation, logit analysis and rough set analysis. On balance, the evidence for a positive impact of policy on growth is rather weak, but the commonly identified importance of education and infrastructure is confirmed. The results are sensitive to several research design parameters. Cross-section studies are more likely to suggest a detrimental effect of "big government" on growth than studies using panel data, but they are unlikely to be able to correctly identify the growth impact of infrastructure. The probability that a study detects a significantly positive effect of public infrastructure on growth is the greater, the longer the time span of data used in the econometric analysis.

Keywords: endogenous growth; fiscal policy; meta-analysis; rough set analysis. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C49 O23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-03-21, Revised 2003-04-23
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tin:wpaper:20020028

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