A Prediction Rule to Stratify Mortality Risk of Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Helder Novais Bastos, Nuno S Osório, António Gil Castro, Angélica Ramos, Teresa Carvalho, Leonor Meira, David Araújo, Leonor Almeida, Rita Boaventura, Patrícia Fragata, Catarina Chaves, Patrício Costa, Miguel Portela (), Ivo Ferreira, Sara Pinto Magalhães, Fernando Rodrigues, Rui Sarmento-Castro, Raquel Duarte, João Tiago Guimarães and Margarida Saraiva

PLOS ONE, 2016, vol. 11, issue 9, 1-14

Abstract: Tuberculosis imposes high human and economic tolls, including in Europe. This study was conducted to develop a severity assessment tool for stratifying mortality risk in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients. A derivation cohort of 681 PTB cases was retrospectively reviewed to generate a model based on multiple logistic regression analysis of prognostic variables with 6-month mortality as the outcome measure. A clinical scoring system was developed and tested against a validation cohort of 103 patients. Five risk features were selected for the prediction model: hypoxemic respiratory failure (OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.8–7.9), age ≥50 years (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.7–4.8), bilateral lung involvement (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4–4.4), ≥1 significant comorbidity—HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, liver failure or cirrhosis, congestive heart failure and chronic respiratory disease–(OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–3.8), and hemoglobin

Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0162797

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0162797

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