Les cycles économiques de la France: une datation de référence

Antonin Aviat, Frédérique Bec, Claude Diebolt, Catherine Doz, Denis Ferrand, Laurent Ferrara, Eric Heyer, Valérie Mignon () and Pierre-Alain Pionnier

Revue économique, 2023, vol. 74, issue 2, 5-52

Abstract: This paper proposes a reference quarterly chronology for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association. The methodology is based on two pillars: 1) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and 2) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the Committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-1975 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-1993, and the Great Recession 2008-2009. For the Covid recession, the peak is dated in the last quarter of 2019 and the trough in the second quarter of 2020.

Keywords: business cycles; French economy; dating; narrative approach; econometric modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Related works:
Working Paper: Les cycles économiques de la France: une datation de référence (2021)
Working Paper: Les cycles économiques de la France: une datation de référence (2021)
Working Paper: Les cycles économiques de la France: une datation de référence (2021)
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