Details about Lutz Kilian

Homepage:	https://sites.google.com/site/lkilian2019/home
Workplace:	Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Lutz Kilian.

Last updated 2024-12-06. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pki110

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Working Papers

2024

1. Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (1)
2. Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2024)
3. Nonparametric Local Projections
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
4. The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2024)
5. When Is the Use of Gaussian-inverse Wishart-Haar Priors Appropriate?
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2024)

2023

6. A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks
   CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) View citations (4)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2022) View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks, Energy Economics, Elsevier (2023) View citations (4) (2023)
7. Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
8. Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (4)
   Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2023) View citations (7)
   CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2023) View citations (7)
   See also Journal Article Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand, Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier (2024) (2024)
9. How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2023)
10. Jointly Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
11. Oil Price Shocks and Inflation
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2023) View citations (1)
12. State-Dependent Local Projections
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (2)

2022

13. Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (6)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2022) View citations (1)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2022)
14. When Do State-Dependent Local Projections Work?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (12)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)

2021

15. Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa and Read's 'Narrative Restrictions and Proxies'
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
    See also Journal Article Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read’s “Narrative Restrictions and Proxies”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2022) View citations (1) (2022)
16. Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa and Read’s ‘Narrative Restrictions and Proxies’
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
17. Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2021)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2021)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2021) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2023) (2023)
18. Facts and fiction in oil market modeling
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) View citations (1)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (10)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2020) View citations (4)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2019) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Facts and fiction in oil market modeling, Energy Economics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (11) (2022)
19. The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2021)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2021) View citations (8)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2021) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23, Energy Economics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (32) (2022)
20. The role of the prior in estimating VAR models with sign restrictions
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) View citations (8)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2020) View citations (14)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (23)

2020

21. A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (2)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) View citations (1)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (2)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2020) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf, The Energy Journal (2023) (2023)
22. Does drawing down the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve help stabilize oil prices?
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) View citations (12)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2019) View citations (2)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (7)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2019) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2020) View citations (22) (2020)
23. Impulse Response Analysis for Structural Dynamic Models with Nonlinear Regressors
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
    See also Journal Article Impulse response analysis for structural dynamic models with nonlinear regressors, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2021) View citations (12) (2021)
24. Joint Bayesian Inference about Impulse Responses in VAR Models
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (7)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2020) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article Joint Bayesian inference about impulse responses in VAR models, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (23) (2022)
25. Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (6)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (6)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2020) View citations (6)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2020) View citations (5)
26. Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) View citations (4)
    Also in 2019 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2019) View citations (44)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2019) View citations (43)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (42)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2019) View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2022) View citations (3) (2022)
27. The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (30)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2020) View citations (20)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) View citations (29)
    See also Chapter The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models, Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2023) View citations (7) (2023)
28. Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (7)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) View citations (7)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2020) View citations (7)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2020) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Understanding the estimation of oil demand and oil supply elasticities, Energy Economics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (20) (2022)

2019

29. Measuring Global Real Economic Activity: Do Recent Critiques Hold Up to Scrutiny?
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (145)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (146)
    See also Journal Article Measuring global real economic activity: Do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2019) View citations (146) (2019)
30. Recent Developments in Bootstrapping Time Series
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (9)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1996) View citations (50)
    See also Journal Article Recent developments in bootstrapping time series, Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals (2000) View citations (133) (2000)
31. The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2018) View citations (7)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2018) View citations (7)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2018) View citations (7)
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2018) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2022) View citations (9) (2022)
32. The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (2)
    Also in Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics (2019) View citations (3)
    Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics (2019) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article The uniform validity of impulse response inference in autoregressions, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2020) View citations (10) (2020)

2018

33. Energy Challenges in an Uncertain World
    Post-Print, HAL
34. Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks: Comment
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (7)
35. Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Information: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand S
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (9)

2017

36. Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (8)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2016) View citations (1)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2016) View citations (1)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (8)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2017) View citations (8)
37. How the Tight Oil Boom Has Changed Oil and Gasoline Markets
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (17)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (18)
38. Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (4)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2017) View citations (4)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?, The Energy Journal (2018) View citations (1) (2018)
39. Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (10)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2017) View citations (25)
    See also Journal Article Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution (2016) View citations (89) (2016)
40. Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (20)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2017) View citations (25)
    See also Journal Article Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2018) View citations (163) (2018)
41. The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers
    Working Papers, Economic Research Forum View citations (92)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2016) View citations (10)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2016) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers, The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics (2017) View citations (98) (2017)

2016

42. A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (21)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (25)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2014) View citations (25)
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2016) View citations (21)
43. Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (22)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2015) View citations (6)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2015) View citations (7)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2017) View citations (101) (2017)
44. Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (290)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2016) View citations (290)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2015) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us, Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association (2016) View citations (291) (2016)
45. Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (2)
    Also in Discussion paper series, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University (2016) View citations (2)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (3)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2014) View citations (3)
    Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics (2014) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Impulse response matching estimators for DSGE models, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2017) View citations (36) (2017)
46. Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (10)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (4)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2015) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2017) View citations (16) (2017)
47. Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (36)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (4)
    Departmental Working Papers, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics (2014) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Joint confidence sets for structural impulse responses, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2016) View citations (35) (2016)
48. The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (126)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (20)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2014) View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (2016) View citations (121) (2016)
49. The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (2)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2014) View citations (11)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (9)
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2014) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2017) View citations (83) (2017)
50. Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (153)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (47)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2015) View citations (49)
    See also Journal Article Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press (2016) View citations (152) (2016)

2014

51. Are There Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (72)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (70)
    See also Journal Article Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts?, Energy Economics, Elsevier (2014) View citations (65) (2014)
52. Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (13)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2013) View citations (3)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2015) View citations (84) (2015)
53. Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (210)
    See also Journal Article Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences, Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews (2014) View citations (210) (2014)

2013

54. Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (25)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (31)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2013) View citations (25)
55. Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (14)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2013) View citations (14)
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2013) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Do oil price increases cause higher food prices?, Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po (2014) View citations (151) (2014)
56. Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (16)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2013) View citations (9)
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2013) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2015) View citations (178) (2015)
57. Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models
    DSSR Discussion Papers, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University View citations (188)
    Also in TERG Discussion Papers, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University (2013) View citations (186)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2013) View citations (181) (2013)
58. Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (31)
    See also Journal Article Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2014) View citations (235) (2014)
59. What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (6)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article WHAT CENTRAL BANKERS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING OIL PRICES, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (2014) View citations (41) (2014)

2012

60. Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (3)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2012) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2013) View citations (108) (2013)
61. Monetary policy responses to oil price fluctuations
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (179)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations, IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan (2012) View citations (179) (2012)
62. Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (13)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios, IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan (2014) View citations (45) (2014)
63. The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (95)
    See also Journal Article The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?, The Energy Journal (2013) View citations (5) (2013)

2011

64. Forecasting the Price of Oil
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (78)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (103)
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2011) View citations (29)
    See also Chapter Forecasting the Price of Oil, Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier (2013) View citations (385) (2013)
65. Nonlinearities in the Oil Price-Output Relationship
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (147)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2011) View citations (155)
    See also Journal Article NONLINEARITIES IN THE OIL PRICE–OUTPUT RELATIONSHIP, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2011) View citations (72) (2011)
66. Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (71)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (36)
    See also Journal Article Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2011) View citations (37) (2011)
67. Structural Vector Autoregressions
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (49)
    See also Chapter Structural vector autoregressions, Chapters, Edward Elgar Publishing (2013) View citations (26) (2013)

2010

68. Oil price volatility: Origins and effects
    WTO Staff Working Papers, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division View citations (50)
69. Quantifying the Risk of Deflation
    EcoMod2004, EcoMod
    See also Journal Article Quantifying the Risk of Deflation, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2007) View citations (7) (2007)
70. The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (100)
    See also Journal Article THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2014) View citations (766) (2014)

2009

71. Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (38)
    See also Journal Article Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?, Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2013) View citations (218) (2013)
72. Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (13)
73. Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2011) View citations (291) (2011)
74. Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (11)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2009) View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2011) View citations (141) (2011)
75. Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (7)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (2009) View citations (4)
76. Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (13)
    See also Chapter Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation, RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia (2010) View citations (37) (2010)
77. Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (40)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2009) View citations (18)
    2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2009) View citations (35)
78. Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (27)
    See also Journal Article WHY AGNOSTIC SIGN RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ENOUGH: UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF OIL MARKET VAR MODELS, Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association (2012) View citations (446) (2012)

2008

79. Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (30)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2008) View citations (24)
    See also Journal Article Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2011) View citations (298) (2011)
80. The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (2011) View citations (65) (2011)
81. Why Does Gasoline Cost so Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (7)

2007

82. Oil Shocks and External Balances
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (29)
    Also in Working Papers, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan (2007) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article Oil shocks and external balances, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2009) View citations (237) (2009)
83. Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (44)
84. The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings: Lessons to be Learned from the US Residential Market for Natural Gas
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
85. The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2008) View citations (24) (2008)
86. The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (87)
    See also Journal Article The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks, Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association (2008) View citations (673) (2008)
87. The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (66)
    See also Journal Article THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (2009) View citations (1009) (2009)
88. The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses About the Transmission of Ener
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (144)
89. What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (34)
    See also Journal Article What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2010) View citations (496) (2010)

2006

90. Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
    Also in Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank (2006) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2009) View citations (1) (2009)
91. Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (59)
    See also Journal Article Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2009) View citations (2767) (2009)
92. Time Series Analysis
    Working Papers, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics View citations (5)
    Also in PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2006) View citations (14)

2005

93. Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (36)
    See also Journal Article Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2008) View citations (615) (2008)
94. How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US CPI Inflation
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (18)
95. The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (27)

2004

96. Bagging Time Series Models
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (25)
    Also in Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society (2004) View citations (26)
97. Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (676)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2004) View citations (673)
    See also Journal Article Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s, Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association (2004) View citations (681) (2004)

2003

98. Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR( Infinite ) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity
    CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO View citations (7)
99. Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form
    Cahiers de recherche, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ View citations (17)
    Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2002) View citations (4)
    CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO (2003) View citations (23)
    Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank (2002) View citations (4)
    Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques (2003) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2004) View citations (405) (2004)
100. On the Selection of Forecasting Models
     CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (34)
     Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2003) View citations (15)
     See also Journal Article On the selection of forecasting models, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2006) View citations (95) (2006)
101. The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks
     CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (8)
     Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2003) View citations (13)

2002

102. In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?
     CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (113)
     Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2002) View citations (64)
     See also Journal Article In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?, Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals (2005) View citations (139) (2005)

2001

103. A Practitioner's Guide to Lag-Order Selection for Vector Autoregressions
     CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (17)
104. Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (408)
     See also Chapter Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) View citations (383) (2002)
105. Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?
     Working Papers, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan View citations (64)
     Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2001) View citations (68)
     Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute (2001) View citations (65)
     CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2001) View citations (61)
     See also Journal Article Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2003) View citations (543) (2003)

2000

106. A Monetary Explanation Of The Great Stagflation Of The 1970s
     CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (5)
     Also in Working Papers, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan (2000) View citations (5)
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2000) View citations (6)
107. Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots
     Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society View citations (6)
     See also Journal Article Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2002) View citations (88) (2002)
108. Measuring Predictability: Theory And Macroeconomic Applications
     CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
     Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (1997) View citations (11)
     CARESS Working Papres, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences View citations (10)
     NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1997) View citations (11)
     Working Papers, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics (1998) View citations (1)
     See also Journal Article Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2001) View citations (62) (2001)
109. Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate
     CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (5)
     Also in Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory (1999) View citations (16)
     See also Journal Article Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2001) View citations (128) (2001)

1999

110. Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators for Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study
     Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory View citations (1)
     See also Journal Article DATA-DRIVEN NONPARAMETRIC SPECTRAL DENSITY ESTIMATORS FOR ECONOMIC TIME SERIES: A MONTE CARLO STUDY, Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals (2002) View citations (3) (2002)
111. On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series
     Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory View citations (23)
     Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1999) View citations (6)
112. Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors
     Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory View citations (6)
     Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (1999) View citations (6)
     FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (1999) View citations (3)
     Working Papers, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan (1999) View citations (6)
113. Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for Applied Work
     Computing in Economics and Finance 1999, Society for Computational Economics View citations (5)
     Also in ZEI Working Papers, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies (1999) View citations (3)
114. Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (17)
     Also in New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- (1999) View citations (18)
     See also Journal Article Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (2000) View citations (101) (2000)
115. Unit Roots, Trend Breaks and Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective
     Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory View citations (3)
     See also Journal Article UNIT ROOTS, TREND BREAKS, AND TRANSITORY DYNAMICS: A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2002) View citations (19) (2002)

1998

116. A Direct test of the Emerging Consensus about Long-Run PPP
     Working Papers, Department of Economics, Bilkent University
117. Analyzing Unit Root Tests in Finite Samples Using Power Profiles
     Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory View citations (2)
118. How Reliable Are VAR Estimates of Responses to Monetary bPolicy Shocks?
     Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory View citations (4)
119. Is there a trend break in U.S. GNP? A macroeconomic perspective
     Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis View citations (9)
120. Pitfalls in Constructing Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Asymptotically Pivotal Statistics
     Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory View citations (5)

1997

121. Exchange rates and Fundamentals: What Do We Learn From Long-Horizon Regressions?
     Working Papers, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan View citations (7)
122. Residual-Based Bootstrap Tests for Normality in Autoregressions
     Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory View citations (5)

Journal Articles

2024

1. Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand
   Journal of Public Economics, 2024, 232, (C)
   See also Working Paper Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand, Working Papers (2023) View citations (4) (2023)

2023

2. A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf
   The Energy Journal, 2023, 44, (5), 95-114
   See also Working Paper A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf, Working Papers (2020) View citations (2) (2020)
3. A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks
   Energy Economics, 2023, 125, (C) View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks, CFS Working Paper Series (2023) View citations (4) (2023)
4. Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2023, 19, (1), 417-450
   See also Working Paper Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery, CESifo Working Paper Series (2021) View citations (1) (2021)

2022

5. Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read’s “Narrative Restrictions and Proxies”
   Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022, 40, (4), 1429-1433 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa and Read's 'Narrative Restrictions and Proxies', Working Papers (2021) (2021)
6. Facts and fiction in oil market modeling
   Energy Economics, 2022, 110, (C) View citations (11)
   See also Working Paper Facts and fiction in oil market modeling, CFS Working Paper Series (2021) View citations (1) (2021)
7. Joint Bayesian inference about impulse responses in VAR models
   Journal of Econometrics, 2022, 231, (2), 457-476 View citations (23)
   See also Working Paper Joint Bayesian Inference about Impulse Responses in VAR Models, Working Papers (2020) View citations (7) (2020)
8. Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022, 126, (C) View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates, CFS Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (4) (2020)
9. Oil prices, gasoline prices, and inflation expectations
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022, 37, (5), 867-881 View citations (24)
10. The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2022, 54, (4), 953-987 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada, Working Papers (2019) (2019)
11. The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23
    Energy Economics, 2022, 113, (C) View citations (32)
    See also Working Paper The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23, CEPR Discussion Papers (2021) (2021)
12. Understanding the estimation of oil demand and oil supply elasticities
    Energy Economics, 2022, 107, (C) View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities, CEPR Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (7) (2020)

2021

13. Impulse response analysis for structural dynamic models with nonlinear regressors
    Journal of Econometrics, 2021, 225, (1), 107-130 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper Impulse Response Analysis for Structural Dynamic Models with Nonlinear Regressors, Working Papers (2020) (2020)

2020

14. Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2020, 35, (6), 673-691 View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper Does drawing down the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve help stabilize oil prices?, CFS Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (12) (2020)
15. The uniform validity of impulse response inference in autoregressions
    Journal of Econometrics, 2020, 215, (2), 450-472 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions, Working Papers (2019) View citations (2) (2019)

2019

16. Measuring global real economic activity: Do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?
    Economics Letters, 2019, 178, (C), 106-110 View citations (146)
    See also Working Paper Measuring Global Real Economic Activity: Do Recent Critiques Hold Up to Scrutiny?, CESifo Working Paper Series (2019) View citations (145) (2019)

2018

17. ARE PRODUCT SPREADS USEFUL FOR FORECASTING OIL PRICES? AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF THE VERLEGER HYPOTHESIS
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2018, 22, (3), 562-580 View citations (38)
18. Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?
    The Energy Journal, 2018, 39, (2_suppl), 117-137 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?, Staff Working Papers (2017) View citations (4) (2017)
19. Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2018, 88, (C), 54-78 View citations (163)
    See also Working Paper Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities, CEPR Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (20) (2017)
20. Special Issue "Energy Challenges in an Uncertain World" Editorial
    The Energy Journal, 2018, 39, (2_suppl), 1-2

2017

21. Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2017, 32, (1), 1-15 View citations (101)
    See also Working Paper Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand, CESifo Working Paper Series (2016) View citations (22) (2016)
22. Impulse response matching estimators for DSGE models
    Journal of Econometrics, 2017, 196, (1), 144-155 View citations (36)
    See also Working Paper Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models, CESifo Working Paper Series (2016) View citations (2) (2016)
23. Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2017, 32, (2), 275-295 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump, CESifo Working Paper Series (2016) View citations (10) (2016)
24. The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers
    The Energy Journal, 2017, Volume 38, (Number 6) View citations (98)
    Also in The Energy Journal, 2017, 38, (6), 137-160 (2017) View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers, Working Papers (2017) View citations (92) (2017)
25. The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2017, 49, (8), 1747-1776 View citations (83)
    See also Working Paper The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions, CESifo Working Paper Series (2016) View citations (2) (2016)

2016

26. Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2016, 30, (1), 139-60 View citations (291)
    See also Working Paper Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us, CESifo Working Paper Series (2016) View citations (290) (2016)
27. Joint confidence sets for structural impulse responses
    Journal of Econometrics, 2016, 192, (2), 421-432 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses, CESifo Working Paper Series (2016) View citations (36) (2016)
28. Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2016, 47, (2 (Fall)), 287-357 View citations (89)
    See also Working Paper Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (10) (2017)
29. The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices
    Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2016, 10, (2), 185-205 View citations (121)
    See also Working Paper The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices, CESifo Working Paper Series (2016) View citations (126) (2016)
30. Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014
    Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 2016, 3, (1), 131 - 158 View citations (152)
    See also Working Paper Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014, CESifo Working Paper Series (2016) View citations (153) (2016)

2015

31. Comment
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2015, 33, (1), 13-17
32. Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 31, (2), 238-252 View citations (84)
    See also Working Paper Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work, Staff Working Papers (2014) View citations (13) (2014)
33. Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2015, 33, (3), 338-351 View citations (178)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach, CEPR Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (16) (2013)
34. Recent Evolutions of Oil and Commodity Prices
    Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, 2015

2014

35. Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts?
    Energy Economics, 2014, 46, (S1), S33-S43 View citations (65)
    See also Working Paper Are There Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?, Staff Working Papers (2014) View citations (72) (2014)
36. Do oil price increases cause higher food prices?
    (Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility)
    Economic Policy, 2014, 29, (80), 691-747 View citations (151)
    See also Working Paper Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (14) (2013)
37. Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences
    Annual Review of Resource Economics, 2014, 6, (1), 133-154 View citations (210)
    See also Working Paper Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences, CEPR Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (210) (2014)
38. Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014, 42, (C), 71-87 View citations (235)
    See also Working Paper Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories, CEPR Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (31) (2013)
39. Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios
    IMF Economic Review, 2014, 62, (1), 119-145 View citations (45)
    See also Working Paper Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios, Staff Working Papers (2012) View citations (13) (2012)
40. THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014, 29, (3), 454-478 View citations (766)
    See also Working Paper The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil, CEPR Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (100) (2010)
41. WHAT CENTRAL BANKERS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING OIL PRICES
    International Economic Review, 2014, 55, (3), 869-889 View citations (41)
    See also Working Paper What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices, Staff Working Papers (2013) View citations (6) (2013)

2013

42. Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?
    Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 32, (5), 385-394 View citations (218)
    See also Working Paper Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (38) (2009)
43. Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2013, 31, (1), 78-93 View citations (108)
    See also Working Paper Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (3) (2012)
44. Frequentist inference in weakly identified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models: Acronyms must be spelled out in titles for indexing purposes
    Quantitative Economics, 2013, 4, (2), 197-229
45. Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models
    Journal of Econometrics, 2013, 177, (1), 1-13 View citations (181)
    See also Working Paper Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models, DSSR Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (188) (2013)
46. The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?
    The Energy Journal, 2013, 34, (3), 7-33 View citations (5)
    Also in The Energy Journal, 2013, Volume 34, (Number 3) (2013) View citations (295)
    See also Working Paper The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (95) (2012)

2012

47. Interviews with the experts on "Financial Speculation in the Oil Market and the Determinants of the Oil Price" (PART II)
    Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, 2012 View citations (1)
48. Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations
    IMF Economic Review, 2012, 60, (4), 470-504 View citations (179)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy responses to oil price fluctuations, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (179) (2012)
49. WHY AGNOSTIC SIGN RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ENOUGH: UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF OIL MARKET VAR MODELS
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2012, 10, (5), 1166-1188 View citations (446)
    See also Working Paper Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models, CEPR Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (27) (2009)

2011

50. Are the responses of the U.S. economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?
    Quantitative Economics, 2011, 2, (3), 419-453 View citations (348)
51. Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2011, 93, (2), 660-671 View citations (298)
    See also Working Paper Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices, CEPR Discussion Papers (2008) View citations (30) (2008)
52. Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?
    Economic Journal, 2011, 121, (555), 1047-1072 View citations (291)
    See also Working Paper Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (11) (2009)
53. Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2011, 26, (7), 1187-1214 View citations (141)
    See also Working Paper Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions, CEPR Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (11) (2009)
54. How Reliable Are Local Projection Estimators of Impulse Responses?
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2011, 93, (4), 1460-1466 View citations (128)
55. NONLINEARITIES IN THE OIL PRICE–OUTPUT RELATIONSHIP
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2011, 15, (S3), 337-363 View citations (72)
    See also Working Paper Nonlinearities in the Oil Price-Output Relationship, CEPR Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (147) (2011)
56. Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2011, 30, (2), 326-336 View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil, Staff Working Papers (2011) View citations (71) (2011)
57. The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas
    Journal of Political Economy, 2011, 119, (2), 212 - 241 View citations (65)
    See also Working Paper The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas, NBER Working Papers (2008) View citations (1) (2008)

2010

58. Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market
    The Energy Journal, 2010, 31, (2), 87-112 View citations (1)
    Also in The Energy Journal, 2010, Volume 31, (Number 2), 87-112 (2010) View citations (135)
59. What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (4), 539-573 View citations (496)
    See also Working Paper What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (34) (2007)

2009

60. Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, 41, (7), 1331-1363 View citations (1)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, 41, (7), 1331-1363 (2009) View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data, CEPR Discussion Papers (2006) View citations (6) (2006)
61. How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2009, 56, (6), 766-779 View citations (398)
62. Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market
    American Economic Review, 2009, 99, (3), 1053-69 View citations (2767)
    See also Working Paper Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market, CEPR Discussion Papers (2006) View citations (59) (2006)
63. Oil shocks and external balances
    Journal of International Economics, 2009, 77, (2), 181-194 View citations (237)
    See also Working Paper Oil Shocks and External Balances, CEPR Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (29) (2007)
64. THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET
    International Economic Review, 2009, 50, (4), 1267-1287 View citations (1009)
    See also Working Paper The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market, CEPR Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (66) (2007)

2008

65. A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2008, 6, (1), 78-121 View citations (267)
66. Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2008, 90, (2), 216-240 View citations (615)
    See also Working Paper Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2005) View citations (36) (2005)
67. How Useful Is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of U.S. Consumer Price Inflation
    Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2008, 103, 511-522 View citations (110)
68. The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2008, 40, (6), 1103-1129 View citations (24)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2008, 40, (6), 1103-1129 (2008) View citations (65)
    See also Working Paper The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan, CEPR Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (2) (2007)
69. The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks
    Journal of Economic Literature, 2008, 46, (4), 871-909 View citations (673)
    See also Working Paper The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks, CEPR Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (87) (2007)

2007

70. Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR(∞) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity
    Econometric Reviews, 2007, 26, (6), 609-641 View citations (56)
71. Comment
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2007, 25, 156-159
72. Quantifying the Risk of Deflation
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (2‐3), 561-590 View citations (7)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (2-3), 561-590 (2007) View citations (32)
    See also Working Paper Quantifying the Risk of Deflation, EcoMod2004 (2010) (2010)
73. The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses about the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2007, 7, (1), 41 View citations (144)

2006

74. NEW INTRODUCTION TO MULTIPLE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, by Helmut Lütkepohl, Springer, 2005
    Econometric Theory, 2006, 22, (5), 961-967 View citations (1)
75. On the selection of forecasting models
    Journal of Econometrics, 2006, 130, (2), 273-306 View citations (95)
    See also Working Paper On the Selection of Forecasting Models, CEPR Discussion Papers (2003) View citations (34) (2003)
76. Understanding the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks
    CESifo Forum, 2006, 7, (02), 21-27

2005

77. A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis
    Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2005, 9, (1), 36 View citations (156)
78. In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?
    Econometric Reviews, 2005, 23, (4), 371-402 View citations (139)
    See also Working Paper In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2002) View citations (113) (2002)

2004

79. Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form
    Journal of Econometrics, 2004, 123, (1), 89-120 View citations (405)
    See also Working Paper Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form, Cahiers de recherche (2003) View citations (17) (2003)
80. Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004, 18, (4), 115-134 View citations (681)
    See also Working Paper Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s, NBER Working Papers (2004) View citations (676) (2004)

2003

81. THE CONTINUITY OF THE LIMIT DISTRIBUTION IN THE PARAMETER OF INTEREST IS NOT ESSENTIAL FOR THE VALIDITY OF THE BOOTSTRAP
    Econometric Theory, 2003, 19, (6), 944-961 View citations (16)
82. Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?
    Journal of International Economics, 2003, 60, (1), 85-107 View citations (543)
    See also Working Paper Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?, Working Papers (2001) View citations (64) (2001)

2002

83. Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots
    Econometrica, 2002, 70, (1), 377-391 View citations (88)
    See also Working Paper Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots, Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers (2000) View citations (6) (2000)
84. Bootstrapping Smooth Functions of Slope Parameters and Innovation Variances in VAR (∞) Models
    International Economic Review, 2002, 43, (2), 309-332 View citations (39)
85. DATA-DRIVEN NONPARAMETRIC SPECTRAL DENSITY ESTIMATORS FOR ECONOMIC TIME SERIES: A MONTE CARLO STUDY
    Econometric Reviews, 2002, 21, (4), 449-476 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators for Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study, Working Papers (1999) View citations (1) (1999)
86. Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2002, 17, (2), 107-125 View citations (68)
87. UNIT ROOTS, TREND BREAKS, AND TRANSITORY DYNAMICS: A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2002, 6, (5), 614-632 View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper Unit Roots, Trend Breaks and Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective, Working Papers (1999) View citations (3) (1999)

2001

88. Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order
    Journal of Forecasting, 2001, 20, (3), 161-79 View citations (107)
89. Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16, (6), 657-669 View citations (62)
    See also Working Paper Measuring Predictability: Theory And Macroeconomic Applications, CEPR Discussion Papers (2000) (2000)
90. Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2001, 20, (5), 639-657 View citations (128)
    See also Working Paper Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate, CEPR Discussion Papers (2000) View citations (5) (2000)

2000

91. How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?
    Economics Letters, 2000, 69, (3), 299-307 View citations (46)
92. Recent developments in bootstrapping time series
    Econometric Reviews, 2000, 19, (1), 1-48 View citations (133)
    See also Working Paper Recent Developments in Bootstrapping Time Series, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019) View citations (9) (2019)
93. Residual-Based Tests for Normality in Autoregressions: Asymptotic Theory and Simulation Evidence
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2000, 18, (1), 40-50 View citations (47)
94. Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2000, 18, (3), 265-73 View citations (101)
    See also Working Paper Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models, NBER Working Papers (1999) View citations (17) (1999)

1999

95. Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1999, 14, (5), 491-510 View citations (323)
96. Finite-Sample Properties of Percentile and Percentile-t Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1999, 81, (4), 652-660 View citations (87)

1998

97. Accounting for Lag Order Uncertainty in Autoregressions: the Endogenous Lag Order Bootstrap Algorithm
    Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1998, 19, (5), 531-548 View citations (24)
98. Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality
    Econometric Reviews, 1998, 17, (1), 1-29 View citations (58)
99. Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1998, 80, (2), 218-230 View citations (655)

1995

100. The Effects of Real and Monetary Shocks in a Business Cycle Model with Some Sticky Prices
     Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1995, 27, (4), 1209-34 View citations (56)
     Also in Proceedings, 1994, 1209-1240 (1994) View citations (8)

Books

2018

1. Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press View citations (35)
   Also in Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press (2017) View citations (639)

Chapters

2023

1. The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models
   A chapter in Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, 2023, vol. 45B, pp 65-95 View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (30) (2020)

2013

2. Forecasting the Price of Oil
   Elsevier View citations (385)
   See also Working Paper Forecasting the Price of Oil, Bank of Canada (2011) View citations (78) (2011)
3. Structural vector autoregressions
   Chapter 22 in Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, 2013, pp 515-554 View citations (26)
   See also Working Paper Structural Vector Autoregressions, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (49) (2011)

2010

4. Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation
   A chapter in Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, 2010 View citations (37)
   See also Working Paper Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (13) (2009)

2002

5. Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, 2002, pp 137-198 View citations (383)
   See also Working Paper Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2001) View citations (408) (2001)