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Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting. (2008). Orphanides, Athanasios ; D'Amico, Stefania.
In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-56.

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Cited: 30

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Cites: 11

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  1. The Impact of Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Returns in the USA. (2023). Vereycken, Michiel ; Collage, Robbe ; Iania, Leonardo.
    In: JRFM.
    RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:189-:d:1093615.

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  2. Economic uncertainty spillover and social networks. (2022). Xu, Bing ; Hui, Yarong ; Zhang, Chuan ; Ma, Dan.
    In: Journal of Business Research.
    RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:145:y:2022:i:c:p:454-467.

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  3. Economic uncertainty and its spillover networks: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific countries. (2021). Chen, Hao ; Ding, Saijie ; Tang, Wenjin.
    In: Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.
    RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:67:y:2021:i:c:s0927538x21000469.

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  4. Are professional forecasters Bayesian?. (2021). Manzan, Sebastiano.
    In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
    RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:123:y:2021:i:c:s016518892030213x.

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  5. Uncertainty and Firms Labour Decisions. Evidence from European Countries. (2020). Urtasun, Alberto ; Martínez-Matute, Marta ; Martinez-Matute, Marta.
    In: IZA Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13645.

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  6. Flood Depth?Damage Curves for Spanish Urban Areas. (2020). Guerrero-Hidalga, Maria ; Forero-Ortiz, Edwar ; Martinez-Gomariz, Eduardo ; Gomez, Manuel ; Castan, Salvador.
    In: Sustainability.
    RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:7:p:2666-:d:338032.

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  7. The term structure and inflation uncertainty. (2020). Orphanides, Athanasios ; Breach, Tomas ; Damico, Stefania.
    In: Journal of Financial Economics.
    RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:138:y:2020:i:2:p:388-414.

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  8. Perceived uncertainty shocks, excess optimism-pessimism, and learning in the business cycle. (2020). Milani, Fabio ; Chatterjee, Pratiti.
    In: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.
    RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:179:y:2020:i:c:p:342-360.

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  9. Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage. (2020). Glas, Alexander.
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:2:p:607-627.

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  10. Have commodities become a financial asset? Evidence from ten years of Financialization. (2020). Kartsakli, Maria ; Collot, Solene ; Adams, Zeno.
    In: Energy Economics.
    RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:89:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320301092.

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  11. From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts. (2020). Sekhposyan, Tatevik ; Rossi, Barbara ; Ganics, Gergely.
    In: CEPR Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14267.

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  12. From Fixed-Event to Fixed-Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-Horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts. (2020). Sekhposyan, Tatevik ; Rossi, Barbara ; Ganics, Gergely.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:bge:wpaper:1142.

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  13. Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide. (2020). Rossi, Luca.
    In: Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers).
    RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_564_20.

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  14. From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: Obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts. (2019). Sekhposyan, Tatevik ; Ganics, Gergely ; Rossi, Barbara.
    In: Economics Working Papers.
    RePEc:upf:upfgen:1689.

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  15. Real and Nominal Effects of Monetary Shocks under Time-Varying Disagreement. (2019). Esady, Vania.
    In: CESifo Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7956.

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  16. From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts. (2019). Sekhposyan, Tatevik ; Rossi, Barbara ; Ganics, Gergely.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:bde:wpaper:1947.

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  17. Forecasting growth of U.S. aggregate and household-sector M2 after 2000 using economic uncertainty measures. (2017). Tarassow, Artur.
    In: Macroeconomics and Finance Series.
    RePEc:hep:macppr:201702.

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  18. The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis. (2017). Tracy, Joseph ; Rich, Robert.
    In: Staff Reports.
    RePEc:fip:fednsr:808.

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  19. A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty. (2017). Ulm, Maren ; Hartmann, Matthias ; Herwartz, Helmut.
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:1:p:76-89.

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  20. The uncertainty multiplier and business cycles. (2017). Saijo, Hikaru.
    In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
    RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:1-25.

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  21. The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks. (2016). Zakrajsek, Egon ; Gilchrist, Simon ; Fuentes-Albero, Cristina ; Caldara, Dario ; Zakrajek, Egon.
    In: European Economic Review.
    RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:88:y:2016:i:c:p:185-207.

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  22. Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks. (2014). Ricco, Giovanni ; Cimadomo, Jacopo ; Callegari, Giovanni.
    In: MPRA Paper.
    RePEc:pra:mprapa:56136.

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  23. The design and communication of systematic monetary policy strategies. (2014). Levin, Andrew.
    In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
    RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:49:y:2014:i:c:p:52-69.

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  24. Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth. (2012). Clements, Michael.
    In: The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS).
    RePEc:wrk:warwec:995.

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  25. Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth. (2012). Clements, Michael.
    In: Economic Research Papers.
    RePEc:ags:uwarer:270629.

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  26. Geography, skills or both: What explains Fed watchers forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?. (2011). Fratzscher, Marcel ; Ehrmann, Michael ; Berger, Helge.
    In: Journal of Macroeconomics.
    RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:3:p:420-437.

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  27. ECB Projections: should leave it to the pros?. (2010). Pacheco, Luis.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:ris:cigewp:2010_011.

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  28. The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts. (2010). Fratzscher, Marcel ; Eijffinger, Sylvester ; Ehrmann, Michael.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101146.

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  29. Learning, expectations formation and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy. (2008). Williams, John ; Orphanides, Athanasios.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2008-05.

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  30. Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters. (2007). Garcia, Juan Angel ; Manzanares, Andres.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007836.

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References

References cited by this document

  1. Croushore, Dean (1993), Introducing: The Survey of Professional Forecasters. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, November/December, 3-13.

  2. Engelberg, Joseph, Charles F. Manski, and Jared Williams (2006), Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters. Working Paper Department of Economics, Northwestern University.

  3. Findley, David, Brian C. Monsell, William R. Bell, Mark C. Otto, and Bor-Chung Chen (1998), New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 16 (2), 127-77.

  4. Giordani, Paolo, and Paul Soderlind (2003), Inflation Forecast Uncertainty. European Economic Review, 47, 1037-10S9.

  5. Gomez, Victor and Agustin Maravall (2000), Automatic Modeling Methods for Univariate Time Series. In A Course in Time Series. Edited by R.S. Tsay, D.Pena, and G.C. Tiao, John Wiley.

  6. Hood, Catherine C.H.(2002). Comparison of Time Series Characteristics for Seasonal Adjustments from SEATS and X-12-ARIMA. Proceedings of the American Statistical Association. Alexandria VA: American Statistical Association.
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  7. Kendall, Maurice and Alan Stuart (1977), The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Volume 1, 4th edition. New York: Macmillan. Kim, Don and Athanasios Orphanides (200S), Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts. Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 200S-48, Federal Reserve Board (October).
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  8. Lahiri, Kajal and Fushang Liu (2004), Modeling Multi-period Inflation Uncertainty Using a Panel of Density Forecasts. Working Paper Department of Economics, State University of New York, Albany.

  9. Rich, Robert, and Joseph Tracy (2003), Modeling Uncertainty: Predictive Accuracy as a Proxy for Predictive Confidence. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 161, February.

  10. Rich, Robert, and Joseph Tracy (2006), The Relationship between Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 253, July. Wallis, Kenneth F. (200S), Combining Density and Interval Forecasts: A Modest Proposal. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67, 983-994.

  11. Zarnowitz, Victor and Louis A. Lambros (1987), Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction. Journal of Political Economy, 9S(3), S91-621.

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