Search Results

Inferring inflation expectations from fixed-event forecasts,
Diego Winkelried, from Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (2014)
Keywords: Survey expectations, fixed-event forecasts, Kalman filter, inflation targeting, Latin America

On aggregation bias in fixed-event forecast efficiency tests,
Gultekin Isiklar, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2004)
Keywords: Aggregation bias; fixed-event; weak-efficiency

Evaluating the Rationality of Fixed-Event Forecasts,
Michael Clements, from University of Warwick, Department of Economics (1996)
Keywords: FORECASTS;POOLING;TESTS

USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?,
Jinzhi Xiao, Chad Hart and Sergio Lence, in Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy (2017)
Keywords: Ending stocks, fixed-event forecasts, forecast efficiency

Approximating fixed-horizon forecasts using fixed-event forecasts,
Malte Knüppel and Andreea L. Vladu, from Deutsche Bundesbank (2016)
Keywords: survey expectations, forecast disagreement

Going with your Gut: The (In)accuracy of Forecast Revisions in a Football Score Prediction Game,
Carl Singleton, J Reade and Alsdair Brown, from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting (2018)
Keywords: Sports forecasting, Fixed-event forecasts, Judgement revision

Are they really rational? Assessing professional macro-economic forecasts from the G7-countries,
Jonas Dovern and Johannes Weisser, from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2008)
Keywords: Evaluating forecasts, macroeconomic forecasting, rationality, survey data, fixed-event forecasts

Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7,
Jonas Dovern and Johannes Weisser, in International Journal of Forecasting (2011)
Keywords: Evaluating forecasts Macroeconomic forecasting Rationality Survey data Fixed-event forecasts

Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7,
Jonas Dovern and Johannes Weisser, in International Journal of Forecasting (2011)
Keywords: Evaluating forecasts; Macroeconomic forecasting; Rationality; Survey data; Fixed-event forecasts;

Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An empirical Comparison for the G7,
Jonas Dovern and Johannes Weisser, from Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena (2009)
Keywords: Evaluating forecasts, Macroeconomic Forecasting, Rationality, Survey Data, Fixed-Event Forecasts

Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth,
Nigel Meade and Ciaran Driver, in International Journal of Forecasting (2023)
Keywords: GDP forecasts; Fixed event forecasting; Herding; Cluster analysis; Granger causality;

The Resolution of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Survey Forecast,
Andrew Patton and Allan Timmermann, from Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University (2008)
Keywords: Fixed-event forecasts, multiple forecast horizons, Kalman filtering, survey data

Here is the news: forecast revisions in the Bank of England survey of external forecasters,
Gianna Boero, Jeremy Smith and Kenneth F. Wallis, in National Institute Economic Review (2008)
Keywords: Forecast surveys; point forecasts; density forecasts; fixed-event forecasts; forecast revisions

From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts,
Gergely Ganics, Barbara Rossi and Tatevik Sekhposyan, from Banco de España (2019)
Keywords: Survey of Professional Forecasters, density forecasts, forecast combination, predictive density, probability integral transform, uncertainty, real-time

From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: Obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts,
Gergely Ganics, Barbara Rossi and Tatevik Sekhposyan, from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (2019)
Keywords: Survey of professional forecasters, density forecasts, forecast combination, predictive density, probability integral transform, uncertainty, real-time.

From Fixed-Event to Fixed-Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-Horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts,
Gergely Ganics, Barbara Rossi and Tatevik Sekhposyan, from Barcelona School of Economics (2020)
Keywords: survey of professional forecasters, density forecasts, forecast combination, predictive density, probability integral transform, uncertainty, real-time

A new method to assess the degree of information rigidity using fixed-event forecasts,
Luciano Vereda, João Savignon and Tarciso Gouveia da Silva, in International Journal of Forecasting (2021)
Keywords: Forecast behavior; Sticky information; Noisy information; Inflation forecasts; Output growth forecasts;

Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: An application to UK inflation,
H. Bakhshi, George Kapetanios and Anthony Yates, in Empirical Economics (2005)
Keywords: Rational expectations, forecast efficiency, C12, G14,

Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment,
Ana Iregui, Héctor M. Núñez and Jesus Otero, in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2021)
Keywords: Fixed-event forecasts; Weak-form efficiency; Strong-form efficiency; Expectations;

Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts,
Kajal Lahiri, Junyan Zhang and Yongchen Zhao, from CESifo (2021)
Keywords: social security trust funds, long-range solvency forecasts, Nordhaus test, forecast efficiency, fixed-event forecast revisions

Anticipating special events in Emergency Department forecasting,
Bahman Rostami-Tabar and Florian Ziel, in International Journal of Forecasting (2022)
Keywords: Forecasting; Emergency department; Forecast accuracy; Special events; Health;

A new methodology for generating and combining statistical forecasting models to enhance competitive event prediction,
Stefan Lessmann, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie E.V. Johnson and Tiejun Ma, in European Journal of Operational Research (2012)
Keywords: Forecasting; Forecast combination; Competitive event prediction;

Forecasting Realized Volatility of Bitcoin Returns: Tail Events and Asymmetric Loss,
Konstantinos Gkillas (Gillas), Rangan Gupta and Christian Pierdzioch, from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics (2019)
Keywords: Bitcoin, Realized volatility, Forecasting, Tail events

Event Effects Estimation on Electricity Demand Forecasting,
Kei Hirose, Keigo Wada, Maiya Hori and Rin-ichiro Taniguchi, in Energies (2020)
Keywords: irregular daily events; basis expansion; electricity demand forecasting; Japanese facility

Fixed-time synchronization of coupled memristive neural networks via event-triggered control,
Yuangui Bao, Yijun Zhang and Baoyong Zhang, in Applied Mathematics and Computation (2021)
Keywords: Fixed-time; Synchronization; Event-triggered control; Coupled memristive neural networks;

Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts,
Michael Clements, in Empirical Economics (2006)
Keywords: Density forecasts, Event probabilities, Encompassing, SPF inflation forecasts, C53,

Long-term penetration and traffic forecasts for the Western European fixed broadband market,
Kjell Stordahl, from International Telecommunications Society (ITS) (2011)
Keywords: Fixed broadband, NGA, NGN, long-term forecasts, penetration, traffic

IMPROVING THE INFLATION RATE FORECASTS OF ROMANIAN EXPERTS USING A FIXED-EFFECTS MODELS APPROACH,
Mihaela Simionescu, in Review of Economic and Business Studies (2014)
Keywords: accuracy, forecasts, fixed-effects model, random walk, forecast error

Forecasting Container Shipping Prices Under the Influence of Major Events,
Jia Li, Anqiang Huang, Xianliang Shi and Xinjun Liu, from Springer (2024)
Keywords: forecast, container shipping prices, EEMD-GRU, major events

Demand forecasting in the presence of systematic events: Cases in capturing sales promotions,
Mahdi Abolghasemi, Jason Hurley, Ali Eshragh and Behnam Fahimnia, in International Journal of Production Economics (2020)
Keywords: Demand forecasting; Systematic events; Time series regression models; Sales promotions; Judgmental forecasting; Supply chain;

Assessment of extreme rainfall events for iFLOWS Mumbai in NCUM regional forecasting system,
Mohan S. T, Raghavendra Ashrit, Kondapalli Niranjan Kumar, Upal Saha, D. Nagarjuna Rao, A. Jayakumar, Saji Mohandas and V. S. Prasad, in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards (2024)
Keywords: Extreme rainfall events, Regional forecasts, Quantitative precipitation forecast, Verification, iFLOWS, Moisture flux

Predicting in shock: on the impact of negative, extreme, rare, and short lived events on judgmental forecasts,
Ian Durbach and Gilberto Montibeller, in EURO Journal on Decision Processes (2018)
Keywords: Behavioral decision making, Judgmental forecasting, Prediction intervals, Price forecasting, Uncertainty, Extreme events, Rare events

Fixed-time leader-following/containment consensus of nonlinear multi-agent systems based on event-triggered mechanism,
Yuliang Cai, Jing Dai, Huaguang Zhang and Yingchun Wang, in Applied Mathematics and Computation (2021)
Keywords: Fixed-time control; Nonlinear multi-agent systems; Event-triggered mechanism; Leader-following consensus; Containment consensus;

Fixed-Time Adaptive Event-Triggered Guaranteed Performance Tracking Control of Nonholonomic Mobile Robots under Asymmetric State Constraints,
Kairui Chen, Yixiang Gu, Weicong Huang, Zhonglin Zhang, Zian Wang and Xiaofeng Wang, in Mathematics (2024)
Keywords: fixed-time control; event-triggered mechanism; asymmetric barrier Lyapunov function; prescribed performance function

A Fixed-Time Event-Triggered Consensus of a Class of Multi-Agent Systems with Disturbed and Non-Linear Dynamics,
Yueqing Wang, Te Wang and Zhi Li, in Mathematics (2024)
Keywords: consensus; multi-agent systems; non-linear; event-triggered control; fixed-time

Estimation-based event-triggered fixed-time fuzzy tracking control for high-order nonlinear systems,
Junchang Zhai, Huanqing Wang, Yuping Qin and Hongxia Cui, in Applied Mathematics and Computation (2025)
Keywords: Fixed-time control; Event-triggered; High-order nonlinear systems; Unknown virtual control gains; Fuzzy logic systems;

RBF-based event-triggered fixed-time stable and chattering-free controller for load following of the pressurized water reactor,
Hongliang Liu, Wenjie Zeng, Jinsen Xie and Run Luo, in Energy (2024)
Keywords: RBF neural networks; Chattering-free fixed-time stable; Event-triggered mechanism; Load following of PWR;

Failing to forecast rare events,
Philip Bond and James Dow, in Journal of Financial Economics (2021)
Keywords: Bid ask spread; Information production; Rare event; Black swan;

A Combined Random Effect and Fixed Effect Forecast for Panel Data Models,
Tae Hwy Lee, Bai Huang and Aman Ullah, from University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics (2018)
Keywords: Endogeneity, Panel Data, Fixed Effect, Random Effect, Hausman test, Combined Estimator, Combined Forecast.

Forecasting violent events in the Middle East and North Africa using the Hidden Markov Model and regularized autoregressive models,
Tozammel Hossain Ksm, Shuyang Gao, Brendan Kennedy, Aram Galstyan and Prem Natarajan, in The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation (2020)
Keywords: Event forecasting; Hidden Markov Model; autoregressive models; external signals

Forecasting Turbidity during Streamflow Events for Two Mid-Atlantic U.S. Streams,
Amanda L. Mather and Richard L. Johnson, in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) (2016)
Keywords: Turbidity Forecasting, Event Model, Stream Water Quality, Uncertainty Analysis

A Review of Sentiment, Semantic and Event-Extraction-Based Approaches in Stock Forecasting,
Wai Khuen Cheng, Khean Thye Bea, Steven Mun Hong Leow, Jireh Yi-Le Chan, Zeng-Wei Hong and Yen-Lin Chen, in Mathematics (2022)
Keywords: natural language processing; deep learning; stock forecasting; sentiment analysis; event extraction

Forecasting of solar power ramp events: A post-processing approach,
Mohamed Abuella and Badrul Chowdhury, in Renewable Energy (2019)
Keywords: Adjusting approach; Evaluation metrics; Post-processing; Ramp events; Solar power forecast; Uncertainty analysis;

Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data,
Ana Galvão and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2022)
Keywords: mixed frequency models; recession; financial indicators; weekly activity index; event probability forecasting

Are Personality Traits Really Fixed and Does It Matter?,
Steven Stillman and Malathi Velamuri, from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2020)
Keywords: personality, non-cognitive skills, life events, fixed

Fixed/Preassigned-Time Synchronization of Fuzzy Memristive Fully Quaternion-Valued Neural Networks Based on Event-Triggered Control,
Shichao Jia, Cheng Hu and Haijun Jiang, in Mathematics (2024)
Keywords: quaternion-valued fuzzy memristive neural network; fixed-time synchronization; dynamic event-triggered control; preassigned-time synchronization; non-separation approach

Adaptive fixed-time hierarchical sliding mode control for switched under-actuated systems with dead-zone constraints via event-triggered strategy,
Shanlin Liu, Ben Niu, Guangdeng Zong, Xudong Zhao and Ning Xu, in Applied Mathematics and Computation (2022)
Keywords: Event-triggered control; Fixed-time control; Hierarchical sliding surface; Switched under-actuated systems; Dead-zone nonlinearity;

Event-triggered sampling-based singularity-free fixed-time control for nonlinear systems subject to input saturation and unknown control directions,
Xiaojing Qi and Shengyuan Xu, in Applied Mathematics and Computation (2025)
Keywords: Uncertain nonlinear systems; Fixed-time stability; Event-triggered control; Nonsymmetric input saturation; Unknown control directions;

Financial Analysts’ Forecasts and Unprecedented Events: The Case of German Reunification,
WaQar Ghani, Samuel Szewczyk and Tayyeb Shabbir, in International Advances in Economic Research (2007)
Keywords: German reunification, financial analysts, forecast revisions, forecast errors, East Germany, West Germany, German economy, Berlin Wall, analysts’ expectations, sectoral valuation, event studies, forecast earnings, valuation effects, G14, P51,

EVENTSTUDYINTERACT: Stata module to implement the interaction weighted estimator for an event study,
Liyang Sun, from Boston College Department of Economics (2022)
Keywords: event study, interactions, two-way fixed effects

Hybrid machine intelligent SVR variants for wind forecasting and ramp events,
Harsh S. Dhiman, Dipankar Deb and Josep M. Guerrero, in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (2019)
Keywords: Wind forecasting; Wavelet transform; Twin support vector regression; ε-Twin support vector regression; Wind power ramp events;

Evaluating the rationality of fixed-event forecasts,
Michael Clements, from University of Warwick - Department of Economics (1996)
Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods

Modeling and forecasting call center arrivals: A literature survey and a case study,
Rouba Ibrahim, Han Ye, L’Ecuyer, Pierre and Haipeng Shen, in International Journal of Forecasting (2016)
Keywords: Call center arrivals; Forecasting; Time series; Doubly stochastic Poisson; Fixed-effects; Mixed-effects; ARIMA; Exponential smoothing; Bayesian; Dimension reduction; Dependence; Seasonality; Marketing events;

Post balance sheet events,
Mike Davies, Ron Paterson and Allister Wilson, from Palgrave Macmillan (1992)
Keywords: Balance Sheet, Financial Position, Share Capital, Fixed Asset, Adjust Event

Assessment of WRF numerical model forecasts using different lead time initializations during extreme precipitation events over Macaé city, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil),
Fabricio Polifke Silva, Alfredo Silveira Silva, Maria Gertrudes Alvarez Justi Silva and Gisele Dornelles Pires, in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards (2022)
Keywords: Precipitation, Forecasting, Extreme rainfall events, Numerical weather prediction

Adaptive multiresolution sampling in event-driven WSNs,
Gergely Öllös and Rolland Vida, in Telecommunication Systems: Modelling, Analysis, Design and Management (2016)
Keywords: Event driven WSNs, Multiresolution sampling, Event forecasting, Procedural signature extraction

An algorithm for forecasting day-ahead wind power via novel long short-term memory and wind power ramp events,
Yang Cui, Zhenghong Chen, Yingjie He, Xiong Xiong and Fen Li, in Energy (2023)
Keywords: Deep learning; Wind power forecast; Wind power ramp event; Numerical weather prediction; LSTM; Day-ahead;

Weather Events and Welfare in the Philippine Households,
Connie Bayudan-Dacuycuy, from Philippine Institute for Development Studies (2016)
Keywords: Philippines; weather events; welfare; fixed effects; Department of Social Welfare and Development

The use of survey data in forecasting business fixed investments,
Jane Haltmaier, from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1989)
Keywords: Forecasting; Capital investments

Assessing Macro-Forecaster Herding: Modelling versus Testing,
Michael Clements, from Henley Business School, University of Reading (2018)
Keywords: macro-forecasting, (anti-)herding, ?xed-event forecasts, ?xed-horizon forecasts.

Are Personality Traits Really Fixed and Does It Matter?,
Steven Stillman and Malathi Velamuri, from CESifo (2020)
Keywords: personality, non-cognitive skills, life events, fixed traits

Event-based diagnosis of flight maneuvers of a fixed-wing aircraft,
Alejandro White and Ali Karimoddini, in Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2020)
Keywords: Fault diagnosis; Flight control; Discrete event systems;

Event-Based Evaluation of Electricity Price Ensemble Forecasts,
Arne Vogler and Florian Ziel, in Forecasting (2021)
Keywords: electricity price forecasting; probabilistic forecasting; statistical models

Risk preference dynamics around life events,
Nathan Kettlewell, in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2019)
Keywords: Risk preferences; Life events; Dynamics; Fixed effects ordered logit;

Should Event Organizers Prevent Resale of Tickets?,
Yao Cui, Izak Duenyas and Özge Şahin, in Management Science (2014)
Keywords: events, ticket resale, fixed pricing, multiperiod pricing, options

Risk preference dynamics around life events,
Nathan Kettlewell, from University of Sydney, School of Economics (2018)
Keywords: risk preferences; life events; dynamics; fixed effects ordered logit

Analysis of a fixed center effect additive rates model for recurrent event data,
Haijin He, Deng Pan, Liuquan Sun, Yimei Li, Leslie L. Robison and Xinyuan Song, in Computational Statistics & Data Analysis (2017)
Keywords: Additive rates model; Center effects; Recurrent events; Terminal event; Model checking;

Simple interpolations of inflation expectations,
Diego Winkelried, in Economics Letters (2023)
Keywords: Expectation surveys; fixed-event forecasts; rolling-event forecasts;

Empirical Tests of the Rationality of Economic Forecasters: A Fixed Horizons Approach,
William Nordhaus and Steven Durlauf, from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1985)
Keywords: Forecast efficiency, forecast adjustments

Integrating the event study method and the Grey Markov forecasting model to evaluate the effect of announcements regarding the establishment of FHCs,
Chen Li-Hui and Cheng Yao-Jen, in International Journal of Management and Decision Making (2008)
Keywords: event study; Grey Markov forecasting models; financial holding companies; FHC acquisitions; establishment announcement; Taiwan; stock values; acquisition announcements; investment.

Mass Conservative Time-Series GAN for Synthetic Extreme Flood-Event Generation: Impact on Probabilistic Forecasting Models,
Divas Karimanzira, in Stats (2024)
Keywords: time-series GAN; synthetic-data generation; probabilistic flood forecasting; extreme events; resilience; t -statistics; principal component analysis; space-filling sampling

Outlier Events of Solar Forecasts for Regional Power Grid in Japan Using JMA Mesoscale Model,
Hideaki Ohtake, Fumichika Uno, Takashi Oozeki, Yoshinori Yamada, Hideaki Takenaka and Takashi Y. Nakajima, in Energies (2018)
Keywords: photovoltaic (PV) power generation; global horizontal irradiance (GHI), numerical weather prediction (NWP), outlier events; day-ahead forecast; regional integration

Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events,
Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Akrivi Litsa, Fotios Petropoulos, Vasileios Bougioukos and Marwan Khammash, in Journal of Business Research (2015)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting; Structured analogies; Delphi; Interaction groups; Governmental forecasting;

Forecasting passenger load for a fixed planning horizon,
Samer S. Saab and Pierrette P. Zouein, in Journal of Air Transport Management (2001)
Keywords: Air traffic demand; Kalman filter; Forecasting;

The Analysis of Extreme Events — Some Forecasting Approaches,
Massimo Salzano, from Springer (2008)
Keywords: Extreme events, Extreme Value Theory (EVT), Self-organized Criticality (SOC)

Market impact of international sporting and cultural events,
António Martins and Ana Paula Serra, in Journal of Economics and Finance (2011)
Keywords: Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Mega-Events, Anticipation, JEL Classification, G14—Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, G310—Fixed Investment Studies,

Climate Events and Insurance Demand - The effect of potentially catastrophic events on insurance demand in Italy,
Gianluca Rosso, Andrea Ricca and Alessandro Chieppa, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2014)
Keywords: Climate change, extreme events, precipitations, floods, catastrophic events, insurance, Italy, statistics, regression, fixed effects.

PromoCast™: A New Forecasting Method for Promotion Planning,
Lee G. Cooper, Penny Baron, Wayne Levy, Michael Swisher and Paris Gogos, in Marketing Science (1999)
Keywords: Retailing, Promotion Planning, Forecasting, Promotion Event Data

We need to talk about intermittent demand forecasting,
Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, in European Journal of Operational Research (2021)
Keywords: Forecasting; Ubiquitousness; Intermittent demand; Special events; Foresight;

Fixed-time nonlinear-filter-based consensus control for nonlinear multiagent systems,
Xinxiao Liu, Lijie Wang and Yang Liu, in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals (2023)
Keywords: Multiagent systems (MASs); Fixed-time nonlinear filter; Fixed-time consensus control; Dynamic event-triggered control;

Extreme event counterfactual analysis of electricity consumption in Brazil: Historical impacts and future outlook under climate change,
Gianlucca Zuin, Rob Buechler, Tao Sun, Chad Zanocco, Francisco Galuppo, Adriano Veloso and Ram Rajagopal, in Energy (2023)
Keywords: Counterfactual; Electric consumption; Forecast; Extreme events;

Trust in forecasts? Correlates with ridership forecast accuracy for fixed-guideway transit projects,
Carole Turley Voulgaris, in Transportation (2020)
Keywords: Public transit, Demand forecasting, Project planning, Ridership

On aggregation bias in fixed-event forecast efficiency tests,
Gultekin Isiklar, in Economics Letters (2005)

Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts,
Fabian Kr\"uger and Hendrik Plett, from arXiv.org (2024)

Inferring Inflation Expectations from Fixed-Event Forecasts,
Diego Winkelried, in International Journal of Central Banking (2017)

Robust Evaluation of Fixed-Event Forecast Rationality,
Michael Clements and Nick Taylor, in Journal of Forecasting (2001)

Fixed income conference calls,
Gus De Franco, Thomas Shohfi, Da Xu and Zhu, Zhiwei (Vivi), in Journal of Accounting and Economics (2023)
Keywords: Conference calls; Corporate bonds; Corporate debt; Debt-equity conflict events; Debt investors; Fixed income;

Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events,
Robert A. Shumsky, in Management Science (1998)
Keywords: Forecasting, Dynamic Programming Applications, Air Transportation

Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts,
Alexander Harin, in Expert Journal of Economics (2014)
Keywords: forecast, uncertainty, risk, utility, Ellsberg paradox

Real-time probability forecasts of UK macroeconomic events,
Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee and Shaun Vahey, in National Institute Economic Review (2008)
Keywords: real-time data; data revision; probability forecasts