Working Papers

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24-28: The Nature of Technological Change 1960-2016

Costas Cavounidis, Vittoria Dicandia, Kevin Lang and Raghav Malhotra

24-27: A Note on Aggregating Preferences for Redistribution

Daniel Carroll, André Victor Doherty Luduvice and Eric Young

24-26: Inflation and Deflationary Biases in the Distribution of Inflation Expectations: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Nine Countries

Michael Lamla, Damjan Pfajfar and Lea Rendell

24-25: Practice Makes Perfect: Learning Effects with Household Point and Density Forecasts of Inflation

Hana Braitsch, James Mitchell and Taylor Shiroff

24-24: Are Friends of Schools the Enemies of Equity? The Interplay of School Funding Policies and External Fundraising

Lisa Barrow, Sarah Komisarow and Lauren Sartain

24-23: Reservation Wages Revisited: Empirics with the Canonical Model

Steven Davis and Pawel Krolikowski

24-22: Work, Poverty, and Social Benefits Over the Past Three Decades

Lisa Barrow, Bea Rivera and Diane Schanzenbach

24-21: Collusion in Repeated Auctions with Costless Communication

Roberto Pinheiro

24-20: An Empirical Evaluation of Some Long-Horizon Macroeconomic Forecasts

Kurt Lunsford and Kenneth D. West

24-19: An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters

Michael Clements, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

24-18: The Downward Spiral: A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Opioid Crisis

Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Karen Kopecky

24-17: Reforming the US Long-Term Care Insurance Market

R. Braun and Karen Kopecky

24-16: Introducing a Framework for Measuring the Quantitative Benefits of Privacy-Enhancing Technologies

Ken Isaacson

24-15: CRE Redevelopment Options and the Use of Mortgage Financing

David Glancy, Robert Kurtzman and Lara Loewenstein

24-14: On Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags

David Glancy, Robert Kurtzman and Lara Loewenstein

24-13: Equilibrium Multiplicity in Aiyagari and Krusell-Smith

Kieran Walsh and Eric Young

24-12: Capital-Skill Complementarity in Manufacturing: Lessons from the US Shale Boom

Victor Hernandez Martinez

24-11: Oil Price Fluctuations and US Banks

Paolo Gelain, Marco Lorusso and Saeed Zaman

24-10: Sixty Years of Global Inflation: A Post-GFC Update

Raphael Auer, Mathieu Pedemonte and Raphael Schoenle

24-09: Consumer Bankruptcy and Unemployment Insurance

Diego Legal and Eric Young

24-08: Predictable Forecast Errors in Full-Information Rational Expectations Models with Regime Shifts

Ina Hajdini and André Kurmann

24-07: The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations

Martha Elena Delgado, Juan Herreño, Marc Hofstetter and Mathieu Pedemonte

24-06: Nowcasting Inflation

Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman

24-05: Short Selling and Bank Deposit Flows

Mark Carey and Christopher Healy

24-04: The Role of Friends in the Opioid Epidemic

Effrosyni Adamopoulou, Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Karen Kopecky

24-03: Interest Rate Risk at US Credit Unions

Grant Rosenberger and Peter Zimmerman

24-02: The Effect of Component Disaggregation on Measures of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI

Christian Garciga, Randal Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman

24-01: The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers' Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance

Edward Knotek, James Mitchell, Mathieu Pedemonte and Taylor Shiroff

23-36: Can Supply Shocks Be Inflationary with a Flat Phillips Curve?

Jean-Paul L'Huillier and Gregory Phelan

23-35: A DSGE Model Including Trend Information and Regime Switching at the ZLB

Paolo Gelain and Pierlauro Lopez

23-34: Forecasting Core Inflation and Its Goods, Housing, and Supercore Components

Todd Clark, Matthew Gordon and Saeed Zaman

23-33: Tax Heterogeneity and Misallocation

Baris Kaymak and Immo Schott

23-32: How Important Is the Information Effect of Monetary Policy?

Zhao Han and Chengcheng Jia

23-31: The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations

James Mitchell and Saeed Zaman

23-30: Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function

Tony Chernis, Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Gary Koop and James Mitchell

23-29: Federal Reserve Structure and the Production of Monetary Policy Ideas

Michael Bordo and Edward Prescott

23-28: Time Use and the Efficiency of Heterogeneous Markups

Brian Albrecht, Thomas Phelan and Nick Pretnar

23-27: Black Mayors and Crime

Craig Sylvera

23-26: The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices

Matthew Gordon and Kurt Lunsford

23-25: Federal Reserve Balance-Sheet Policy in an Ample Reserves Framework: An Inventory Approach

Joseph Haubrich

23-24: Basic Facts on the Coverage of the Paycheck Protection Program

Angela Guo and Mark Schweitzer

23-23: Wage Adjustment in Efficient Long-Term Employment Relationships

Michael Elsby, Axel Gottfries, Pawel Krolikowski and Gary Solon

23-22: The Expectations of Others

Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman, Ina Hajdini, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte and Raphael Schoenle

23-21: Estimating Duration Dependence on Re-employment Wages When Reservation Wages Are Binding

Richard Grice, Victor Hernandez Martinez and Kaixin Liu

23-20: The FOMC versus the Staff: Do Policymakers Add Value in Their Tales?

Ilias Filippou, James Mitchell and My T. Nguyen

23-19: Business Cycles and Low-Frequency Fluctuations in the US Unemployment Rate

Kurt Lunsford

23-18: Random Walk Forecasts of Stationary Processes Have Low Bias

Kurt Lunsford and Kenneth D. West

23-17: On the Origins of the Federal Reserve System and Its Structure

Owen Humpage

23-16: Childhood Exposure to Violence and Nurturing Relationships: The Long-Run Effects on Black Men

Dionissi Aliprantis and Kristen Tauber

2023-16: K–12 Schools in Ohio Are Separate and Unequal

Dionissi Aliprantis and Mukund Jayaram