[go: up one dir, main page]

  EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Optimal Expectation

Markus Brunnermeier and Jonathan Parker

No 4656, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This Paper introduces a tractable, structural model of subjective beliefs. Forward-looking agents care about expected future utility flows, and hence have higher current felicity if they believe that better outcomes are more likely. On the other hand, biased expectations lead to poorer decisions and worse realized outcomes on average. Optimal expectations balance these forces by maximizing average felicity. A small bias in beliefs typically leads to first-order gains due to increased anticipatory utility and only to second-order costs due to distorted behaviour. We show that in a portfolio choice problem, agents overestimate the return on their investment and exhibit a preference for skewness. In general equilibrium, agents? prior beliefs are endogenously heterogeneous. Finally, in a consumption-saving problem with stochastic income, agents are both overconfident and overoptimistic.

Keywords: Expectation; Heterogenous beliefs; Belief biases; Consumption; Saving; Portfolio choice; Overconfidence; Gambling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D10 D80 E21 G11 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-evo, nep-fin and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP4656 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Journal Article: Optimal Expectations (2005) Downloads
Working Paper: Optimal Expectations (2004) Downloads
Working Paper: Optimal Expectations (2004) Downloads
Working Paper: Optimal expectations (2002) Downloads
Working Paper: Optimal Expectations (2002) Downloads
Working Paper: Optimal Expectations (2002) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4656

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP4656

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

 
Page updated 2024-12-04
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4656