Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Alvaro Calzadilla (), Katrin Rehdanz, Richard Betts, Pete Falloon, Andy Wiltshire and Richard Tol

No 1617, Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

Abstract: Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are marked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness.

Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium; Climate Change; Agriculture; Water Resources (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 Q17 Q25 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/32519/1/625694627.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Climate change impacts on global agriculture (2013)
Working Paper: Climate Change Impacts on Global Agriculture (2010)
Working Paper: Climate Change Impacts on Global Agriculture (2010)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1617

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().