Geopolitical risk perceptions

Yevheniia Bondarenko, Vivien Lewis, Matthias Rottner and Yves Schüler

No 37/2024, Discussion Papers from Deutsche Bundesbank

Abstract: Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially.

Keywords: geopolitical risk; risk perceptions; Russia; sanctions; shock transmission (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E44 E71 F44 F51 G41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-ifn and nep-opm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/302558/1/1902248120.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Geopolitical Risk Perceptions (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bubdps:302558

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from Deutsche Bundesbank Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().