Sectoral dynamics and the business cycle in the euro area

Niccolò Battistini and Johannes Gareis

Economic Bulletin Articles, 2024, vol. 4

Abstract: This article examines recent sectoral developments in the euro area and their near-term implications for the business cycle. After a brief review of the existing literature, it presents new evidence for the euro area. It first uses a simple aggregate measure of cross-sectoral shifts in activity to assess the short-term impact of these shifts on the business cycle. It then explores the leading-indicator properties of sectoral developments as regards aggregate activity and explains the correlation between these properties and the position of sectors within the production structure of the economy. Overall, the results of this article point to moderate momentum in economic activity in the euro area in the near term. JEL Classification: E23, E27, E32

Keywords: business cycle; Sectoral dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbart:2024:0004:1

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