Details about Kevin Lee

E-mail:
Homepage:	http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/~lezkl/
Postal address:	Sir Clive Granger Building School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD UK
Workplace:	School of Economics, University of Nottingham, (more information at EDIRC) Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham, (more information at EDIRC) Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM), School of Economics, University of Nottingham, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Kevin Lee.

Last updated 2024-07-04. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: ple288

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Working Papers

2023

1. Measuring Flexible Prices, Flexible Output and Marginal Costs Using Survey Data
   Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE)

2022

2. Investment and Capacity Utilisation in a Putty-Clay Framework
   Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE)
3. Nowcasting Using Firm-Level Survey Data; Tracking UK Output Fluctuations and Recessionary Events
   Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE)
4. Shock persistence, uncertainty and news-driven business cycles
   CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

2020

5. Macroeconomic Conditions and Health in Britain: Aggregation, Dynamics and Local Area Heterogeneity
   IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) View citations (12)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (11)
6. Output expectations, uncertainty and the UK business cycle; Evidence from the CBI's suite of business surveys
   Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)
7. The CBI Suite of Business Surveys
   Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) View citations (3)

2019

8. Measuring the fiscal multiplier when plans take time to implement
   CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University
   Also in Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) (2018) View citations (1)
9. The Australian real-time fiscal database: A overview and an illustration of its use in analysing planned and realised fiscal policies
   CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University
   Also in Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) (2018)

2015

10. Real-Time Data should be used in Forecasting Output Growth and Recessionary Events in the US
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)

2014

11. Forecasting Global Recessions in a GVAR Model of Actual and Expected Output in the G7
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) View citations (1)

2012

12. Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods
    Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis Using Model Averaging Methods, Manchester School, University of Manchester (2013) View citations (13) (2013)

2011

13. Public Sector Debt Dynamics: The Persistence and Sources of Shocks to Debt in Ten EU Countries
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)
14. The Australian Real?Time Datbase: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis
    Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis, The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia (2012) View citations (7) (2012)
15. The Meta Taylor Rule
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) View citations (1)
    Also in Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne (2011) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article The Meta Taylor Rule, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2015) View citations (9) (2015)

2010

16. Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and When Do We Know We Are in One?
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)
17. Financial Restraints and Private Investment: Evidence from a Nonstationary Panel*
    Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester
    See also Journal Article FINANCIAL RESTRAINTS AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: EVIDENCE FROM A NONSTATIONARY PANEL, Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International (2013) View citations (12) (2013)
18. Measuring the Natural Output Gap Using Actual and Expected Output Data
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)
    Also in Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester (2009)
    Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics (2009)

2009

19. Decision Making in hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and How Do We Know When We Are in One?
    Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester
    See also Journal Article Decision-making in hard times: What is a recession, why do we care and how do we know when we are in one?, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier (2011) View citations (7) (2011)
20. Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (3)
    Also in Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester (2008) View citations (4)

2007

21. Household Credit and Probability Forecasts of Financial Distress in the United Kingdom
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)

2006

22. Investing Under Model Uncertainty: Decision Based Evaluation of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Forecasts in the US, UK and Japan
    Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics View citations (1)
23. Real Time Representation of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Trend Uncertainty
    Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics View citations (3)
24. Real Time Representations of the Output Gap
    Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics View citations (8)
    Also in Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005, Money Macro and Finance Research Group (2005) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Real-Time Representations of the Output Gap, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2008) View citations (61) (2008)

2005

25. Investment Decisions Under Model Uncertainty: An Application Using Exchanger Rate and Interest Rate Forecasts
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics

2004

26. Business survey forecasts and measurement of output trends in five European economies
    Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003, Money Macro and Finance Research Group
27. Modelling Macroeconomic Linkages in a Monetary Union: A West African Example
    WIDER Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) View citations (1)
28. Overcoming Measurement Error Problems in the use of Survey Data on Expectations
    Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings, Econometric Society View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Overcoming Measurement Error Problems in the Use of Survey Data on Expectations, The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia (2007) View citations (2) (2007)
29. The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone
    WIDER Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone, Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (2004) View citations (12) (2004)

2002

30. Corporate profitability and the dynamics of competition in emerging markets: a time series analysis
    Working Papers, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Corporate profitability and the dynamics of competition in emerging markets: a time series analysis, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2003) View citations (30) (2003)
31. Forecast Uncertainties In Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy
    Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002, Royal Economic Society View citations (61)
    Also in Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (2000) View citations (22)

2001

32. A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK
    Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh View citations (30)
    Also in Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (1998) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2003) View citations (119) (2003)
33. Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomics Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy
    Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomic Modeling: An Application to the U.K. Economy, Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association (2003) View citations (60) (2003)

2000

34. Competition, Corporate Governance and Financing of corporate Growth in Emerging Markets
    Accounting and Finance Discussion Papers, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge View citations (16)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2000) View citations (14)
35. Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Models: An Application to the UK Economy
    Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester View citations (3)

1999

36. A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK (first version)
    Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh View citations (3)

1998

37. A Structural Cointegrating VAR Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge View citations (21)
    Also in Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh (1998) View citations (10)
38. Cross-sectional Aggregation of Non-linear Models
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Cross-sectional aggregation of non-linear models, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2000) View citations (39) (2000)

1996

39. Growth and Convergence in a Multi-Country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model
    Working Papers, Economic Research Forum View citations (11)
    Also in Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article Growth and Convergence in Multi-country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (1997) View citations (319) (1997)
40. Takeovers, institutional investment and the persistence of profits
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)

1995

41. Expectations Fromation and Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975-1993
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
42. Growth and Convergence: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis of the Solow Growth Model
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge View citations (8)
43. Options. Economic Fluctuations in a Model of Output Growth in the G7 Economies, 1960-1991
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge

1992

44. Choice Between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variable Methods
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
    See also Journal Article Choice between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variables Methods, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (1994) View citations (10) (1994)
45. The Role of Sectoral Interactions in Wage Determination in the UK Economy
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
    See also Journal Article The Role of Sectoral Interactions in Wage Determination in the UK Economy, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (1993) View citations (36) (1993)

1991

46. Persistence of Shocks and Its Sources in a Multisectorial Model of UK Output Growth
    Working Papers, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics View citations (2)

1990

47. PERSISTENCE, COINTEGRATION AND AGGREGATION: A DISAGGREGATED ANALYSIS OF OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE U.S. ECONOMY
    Working Papers, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics View citations (5)
    Also in Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (1990) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Persistence, cointegration, and aggregation: A disaggregated analysis of output fluctuations in the U.S. economy, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (1993) View citations (47) (1993)

1988

48. Aggregation Bias and Labor Demand Equations for the U.K. Economy
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics View citations (3)

Undated

49. Information, Business Survey Forecasts and Measurement of Output Trends in Six European Economies
    Discussion Papers in European Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester View citations (1)

Journal Articles

2024

1. Feline gastrointestinal eosinophilic sclerosing fibroplasia in two cats: Serial ultrasonographic and computed tomography findings
   Veterinární medicína, 2024, 69, (5), 177-183

2023

2. Economic conditions and health: Local effects, national effect and local area heterogeneity
   Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2023, 214, (C), 801-828

2022

3. Fundamentals, regimes and exchange rate forecasts: Insights from a meta exchange rate model
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022, 123, (C)

2020

4. Making Fiscal Adjustments Using Event Probability Forecasts in OECD Countries
   The Economic Record, 2020, 96, (314), 294-313
5. The Australian Real‐Time Fiscal Database: An Overview with Illustrations of Its Use in Analysing Fiscal Policy
   The Economic Record, 2020, 96, (312), 87-106

2019

6. Evaluating the use of realtime data in forecasting output levels and recessionary events in the USA
   Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2019, 182, (1), 131-163

2018

7. The role of uncertainty, sentiment and cross-country interactions in G7 output dynamics
   Canadian Journal of Economics, 2018, 51, (2), 391-418
   Also in Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 2018, 51, (2), 391-418 (2018)

2016

8. Forecasting global recessions in a GVAR model of actual and expected output
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, 32, (2), 374-390 View citations (3)
9. Information rigidities and the news-adjusted output gap
   Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2016, 70, (C), 1-17

2015

10. The Meta Taylor Rule
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, 47, (1), 73-98 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper The Meta Taylor Rule, Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (1) (2011)

2013

11. FINANCIAL RESTRAINTS AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: EVIDENCE FROM A NONSTATIONARY PANEL
    Economic Inquiry, 2013, 51, (1), 248-259 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper Financial Restraints and Private Investment: Evidence from a Nonstationary Panel*, Discussion Papers in Economics (2010) (2010)
12. Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis Using Model Averaging Methods
    Manchester School, 2013, 81, 28-53 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods, Department of Economics - Working Papers Series (2012) View citations (1) (2012)
13. Public Sector Debt Dynamics: The Persistence and Sources of Shocks to Debt in 10 EU Countries
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013, 45, (2-3), 277-298 View citations (15)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013, 45, (2‐3), 277-298 (2013) View citations (6)

2012

14. Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis
    The Economic Record, 2012, 88, (283), 495-516 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper The Australian Real?Time Datbase: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis, Department of Economics - Working Papers Series (2011) View citations (2) (2011)
15. Does one size fit all? Modelling macroeconomic linkages in the West African Economic and Monetary Union
    Economic Change and Restructuring, 2012, 45, (1), 45-70 View citations (13)

2011

16. Decision-making in hard times: What is a recession, why do we care and how do we know when we are in one?
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2011, 22, (1), 43-60 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Decision Making in hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and How Do We Know When We Are in One?, Discussion Papers in Economics (2009) (2009)

2010

17. Investing under model uncertainty: Decision based evaluation of exchange rate forecasts in the US, UK and Japan
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2010, 29, (3), 403-422 View citations (9)

2009

18. Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, 25, (1), 81-102 View citations (26)

2008

19. Real-Time Representations of the Output Gap
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2008, 90, (4), 792-804 View citations (61)
    See also Working Paper Real Time Representations of the Output Gap, Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance (2006) View citations (8) (2006)
20. Real-time probability forecasts of UK macroeconomic events
    National Institute Economic Review, 2008, 203, 78-90
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2008, 203, (1), 78-90 (2008) View citations (2)

2007

21. Overcoming Measurement Error Problems in the Use of Survey Data on Expectations
    The Economic Record, 2007, 83, (262), 303-316 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Overcoming Measurement Error Problems in the use of Survey Data on Expectations, Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings (2004) View citations (1) (2004)

2004

22. The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone
    Journal of African Economies, 2004, 13, (4), 488-517 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone, WIDER Working Paper Series (2004) View citations (10) (2004)

2003

23. A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK
    Economic Journal, 2003, 113, (487), 412-455 View citations (119)
    See also Working Paper A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK, Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series (2001) View citations (30) (2001)
24. Corporate profitability and the dynamics of competition in emerging markets: a time series analysis
    Economic Journal, 2003, 113, (491), F465-F484 View citations (30)
    See also Working Paper Corporate profitability and the dynamics of competition in emerging markets: a time series analysis, Working Papers (2002) View citations (14) (2002)
25. Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomic Modeling: An Application to the U.K. Economy
    Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2003, 98, 829-838 View citations (60)
    See also Working Paper Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomics Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy, Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series (2001) View citations (8) (2001)

2001

26. Intensity of Competition in Emerging Markets and Advanced Economies: Evidence from the Persistence of Corporate rates of Return in Emerging Markets
    Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2001, 70, (2), 201-202
27. Persistence of profitability and competition in emerging markets
    Economics Letters, 2001, 72, (2), 247-253 View citations (80)

2000

28. Cross-sectional aggregation of non-linear models
    Journal of Econometrics, 2000, 95, (2), 285-331 View citations (39)
    See also Working Paper Cross-sectional Aggregation of Non-linear Models, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics (1998) View citations (2) (1998)
29. Expectations Formation and Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975–1996
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2000, 62, (4), 463-490 View citations (8)
30. Measuring Output Trends Using Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975–98
    Manchester School, 2000, 68, (s1), 75-91

1998

31. Cross-country interdependencies in growth dynamics: A model of output growth in the G7 economies, 1960–1994
    Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 1998, 134, (3), 367-403 View citations (2)
32. Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach—A Comment
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1998, 113, (1), 319-323 View citations (100)

1997

33. Growth and Convergence in Multi-country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1997, 12, (4), 357-92 View citations (319)
    See also Working Paper Growth and Convergence in a Multi-Country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model, Working Papers (1996) View citations (11) (1996)
34. Modelling economic growth in the UK: An econometric case for disaggregated sectoral analysis
    Economic Modelling, 1997, 14, (3), 369-394 View citations (7)

1994

35. Choice between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variables Methods
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1994, 12, (1), 11-21 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper Choice Between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variable Methods, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics (1992) (1992)
36. Formation of Price and Cost Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries: A Multi-Sectoral Analysis
    Economic Journal, 1994, 104, (423), 372-85 View citations (25)

1993

37. Persistence profiles and business cycle fluctuations in a disaggregated model of U.K. output growth
    Ricerche Economiche, 1993, 47, (3), 293-322 View citations (66)
38. Persistence, cointegration, and aggregation: A disaggregated analysis of output fluctuations in the U.S. economy
    Journal of Econometrics, 1993, 56, (1-2), 57-88 View citations (47)
    See also Working Paper PERSISTENCE, COINTEGRATION AND AGGREGATION: A DISAGGREGATED ANALYSIS OF OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE U.S. ECONOMY, Working Papers (1990) View citations (5) (1990)
39. The Role of Sectoral Interactions in Wage Determination in the UK Economy
    Economic Journal, 1993, 103, (416), 21-55 View citations (36)
    See also Working Paper The Role of Sectoral Interactions in Wage Determination in the UK Economy, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics (1992) (1992)
40. Trade unions, relative wages, and the employment of young workers
    European Journal of Political Economy, 1993, 9, (3), 333-355 View citations (1)

1992

41. Persistence of Shocks and Their
    Economic Journal, 1992, 102, (411), 342-56 View citations (32)

1990

42. Testing for Aggregation Bias in Linear Models
    Economic Journal, 1990, 100, (400), 137-50 View citations (37)

1989

43. Institutional investment, mergers and the market for corporate control
    International Journal of Industrial Organization, 1989, 7, (1), 73-100 View citations (22)

1988

44. The Effect of Changes in Britain's Industrial Structure on Female Relative Pay and Employment
    Economic Journal, 1988, 98, (392), 818-32 View citations (9)

Books

2012

1. Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach
   OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press View citations (27)
   Also in OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press (2006) View citations (185)

Chapters

2022

1. A Meta Model Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination*
   A chapter in Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, 2022, vol. 43A, pp 199-215