The men’s singles final is on Sunday in New York.
For the past 52 weeks, Jannik Sinner has clearly been the best ATP player in the world, with a record of 74-7 and seven titles, plus a Davis Cup crown. With a victory on Sunday, he would hold an over 4,000-point lead in the rankings. But he must overcome the best version of Taylor Fritz we’ve ever seen, who has been serving excellently and has advanced to his first Major final.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Taylor Fritz (12) – 2:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Despite news breaking shortly before this event that he had been cleared of any wrongdoing for two positive drug tests earlier this season, Sinner has played excellently this fortnight, dropping just two sets. Jannik has been above 75% of first serve points won in all six of his matches, and has broken his opponents an astounding 34 times across 20 sets. The 23-year-old Italian is an excellent 15-4 in ATP finals, having won all five finals he’s played this year, and eight of his last nine.
Fritz was 0-4 in Major quarterfinals ahead of this fortnight, yet has broken through to this championship match with the loss of four sets, and with three consecutive victories over top 20 players (Ruud, Zverev, Tiafoe). The 26-year-old American has also been above 75% on first serve points in all six of his matches, and above 80% in the first five. But a notable difference compared to Sinner is that he’s broken serve 26 times across 22 sets, which is eight less times despite playing two more sets. Taylor is 8-6 in ATP finals, though he’s now won seven of his last eight.
They have split two previous meetings, both of which occurred in Indian Wells. In the fall of 2021, Fritz won in straight sets, back when Sinner was ranked just 39th in the world. 18 months ago, Jannik won in three sets.
Defeating Jannik Sinner on a hard court has become the toughest task the ATP has to offer in 2024. He is 34-2 on this surface, and was at least slightly injured during his two losses. And while Jannik injured his wrist during a fall in Friday’s semifinals, it did not appear to significantly impact his play. He also finished his semifinal about five hours earlier this Fritz, and only played three sets instead of five. Considering Sinner’s superior return game, and the lack of holes in his game overall, Jannik is a considerable favorite to win his second Major on Sunday.