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Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading

Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy.
  1. Zeke Hausfather

    1. Zeke Hausfather is director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute, Oakland, California, USA.

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  2. Glen P. Peters

    1. Glen P. Peters is research director at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway.

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A rainbow forms behind wind-farm windmills near rain-soaked Interstate 10, Palm Springs, California

Falling costs for generating clean electricity have led to a proliferation of wind farms, such as this one near Palm Springs, California. Credit: David McNew/Getty

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More than a decade ago, climate scientists and energy modellers made a choice about how to describe the effects of emissions on Earth’s future climate. That choice has had unintended consequences which today are hotly debated. With the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) moving into its final stages in 2020, there is now a rare opportunity to reboot.

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Nature 577, 618-620 (2020)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3

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