University of Wisconsin — Madison
Using the dynamics of U.S. imports in the period around the U.S.-China trade war and a model of exporter dynamics, we estimate the time-varying probability of transiting between Normal Trade Relations and a trade war state. The trade war was initially expected to end quickly, but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020. The expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump.
I am co-organizing a JIE issue on Dynamic Quantitative Trade. Call for papers. Submission portal. Deadline 6/23.
I am the Curt and Sue Culver Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin, where I am the co-director of the Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy. My research focuses on international economics, models of firm heterogeneity, and national income accounting (Google Scholar // IDEAS). I hold a B.S. in Economics from Bowling Green State University and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota.
I am also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a special sworn researcher at the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, where I study the ways that multinational firms produce and sell goods and services around the world.
I am currently a co-editor at the Journal of International Economics and an associate editor at the Review of Economic Dynamics. Among other things, I organize the Atlanta International Workshop with Simon Fuchs, Federico Mandelman, and Vivian Yue.