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Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment 1st Edition

by Thomas Gilovich (Editor), Dale Griffin (Editor), Daniel Kahneman (Editor)

4.6 55 ratings

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Judgment pervades human experience. Do I have a strong enough case to go to trial? Will the Fed change interest rates? Can I trust this person? This book examines how people answer such questions. How do people cope with the complexities of the world economy, the uncertain behavior of friends and adversaries, or their own changing tastes and personalities? When are people's judgments prone to bias, and what is responsible for their biases? This book compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer these important questions.

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Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment; offers a massive, state-of-the-art treatment of the literature, supplementing a similar book published two decades ago...This is an impressive book, full of implications for law and policy." Cass Sunstein, University of Chicago Law School

"...the book should serve well as a reference work for researchers in cognitive science and as a textbook for advanced courses in that difficult topic. Philosophers interested in cognitive science will also wish to consult it." Metapsychology Online Review

"Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment is a scholarly treat, one that is sure to shape the perspectives of another generation of researchers, teachers, and graduate students. The book will serve as a welcome refresher course for some readers and a strong introduction to an important research perspective for others." Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology

Book Description

This book, first published in 2002, compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer important questions about intuitive judgment.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Cambridge University Press; 1st edition (July 8, 2002)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Paperback ‏ : ‎ 882 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0521796792
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0521796798
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 2.5 pounds
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.25 x 1.25 x 9.25 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #1,244,790 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #1,616 in Medical Cognitive Psychology
- #2,662 in Cognitive Psychology (Books)
- #4,494 in Medical General Psychology

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4.6 55 ratings

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Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman (Hebrew: דניאל כהנמן‎, born March 5, 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (shared with Vernon L. Smith). His empirical findings challenge the assumption of human rationality prevailing in modern economic theory. With Amos Tversky and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors that arise from heuristics and biases (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973; Kahneman, Slovic & Tversky, 1982; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), and developed prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979).
In 2011, he was named by Foreign Policy magazine to its list of top global thinkers. In the same year, his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, which summarizes much of his research, was published and became a best seller. He is professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School. Kahneman is a founding partner of TGG Group, a business and philanthropy consulting company. He is married to Royal Society Fellow Anne Treisman.
In 2015 The Economist listed him as the seventh most influential economist in the world.
Bio from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Photo by see page for author [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons.
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Thomas Gilovich
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Dr. Lee D. Carlson
Of vast importance
Reviewed in the United States on October 30, 2005
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This collection of articles has its origin in the work of one of the editors (Daniel Kahneman) and Amos Tversky (now deceased) in the 1970's. The first article in the book gives an introduction to this work and a brief historical survey. This work, along with current developments, is extremely important, for it sheds light on the differences (if any) between "intuitive judgment" and judgment that is based on more quantitative, mathematical, or algorithmic reasoning. If human judgment in uncertain environments is based on a limited number of simplifying heuristics, and not on extensive algorithmic processing, this would be very important for someone who is attempting to implement or simulate human reasoning in a machine. Economics, finance, and political decision-making are other areas that need a more accurate view of human judgment. Indeed, the "rational agent" assumption in classical economics, wherein the person makes choices by assessing the probability of each possible outcome and then assigning a utility to each, is considered to be fundamental, even axiomatic. It is therefore of great interest to examine challenges to this assumption.

In order to test the rational agent assumption, experiments must be conducted to test whether indeed the human assessment of likelihood and risk does indeed conform to the laws of probability. The data obtained in these experiments must then be judged as to whether it can be used to decide between the rational agent model and models of human judgment that are based on "intuition" (however vaguely or mystically this latter term is defined).

The authors of the first article in this book discuss some of the work on these questions, in particular the research that involved comparing expert clinical prediction with actuarial methods. The latter were found to perform better than the former. Even more interesting is that the clinician's assessments of their abilities were very far from what the record of success actually indicated. Some research has also indicated that intuitive judgments of likelihood do not correspond to what is obtained by Bayesian reasoning patterns.

These results, as the authors discuss, motivated performance models that were not based on the assumption of full rationality, but rather on what is called `bounded rationality.' The developers of this model felt that the processing limitations of the human brain dictated that humans must choose very limited heuristics when engaged in decision-making.

Also of great interest, and discussed in another article in the book, is the human ability to engage in affective forecasting. The latter involves the making of decisions based on the predictions of the emotional consequences of future events. The authors study the accuracy of affective forecasting and the accompanying notion of `durability bias.' The latter notion arises when individuals attempt to estimate how long particular feelings will last, and this estimation seems to be considerably longer than what actually occurs. The authors discuss some of the reasons for the durability bias in affective forecasting. One of these is ordinary misconstrual, where events are thought to be more powerful than what are actually realized, resulting in the overestimation of the duration of the affective responses to these events. Another regards the difficulty in forecasting affective reactions to events about which much is known. In addition, the authors point to "defensive pessimism" as to another of the reasons for inaccurate affective forecasting. This allows for mental preparation for the consequences of an event, and for positive feelings when the affective duration is smaller than what had been predicted. The main emphasis of the authors' article though is much more interesting than these explanations, for it involves the notion of a `psychological immune system.' Quoting the research of many psychologists, and arguing in analogy to the ordinary biological immune system, the authors view this system as one that protects the individual from an "overdose of gloom." Further, the functioning of the psychological immune system is optimized when it is not brought into the conscious focus of the individual. This `immune neglect' however has as a consequence the durability bias, in that if an individual fails to recognize her negative affect will decrease and be subjected to psychological mechanisms that assist greatly in this diminution, then she will tend to overestimate the time duration of her emotional reactions. The authors discuss empirical studies of durability bias in their article, and discuss some of the consequences of their studies. One of these concerns the possibility that humans could be mistaken about their own internal experiences. This is a very troubling possibility, but the authors give many references that purport to support it. This research shows that not only can people be completely mistaken about their feelings toward an object, but that their actual behaviors is better evidence of their internal states than what they report verbally.

Another interesting article in the book concerns the topic of automated choice heuristics. This area has arisen as a reaction to the idea that human choice can be predicted using theoretical models of optimal choice. Instead, one must identify the heuristics the people use to simplify their choices. These heuristics are used to restrict or compress the amount of information that is processed by the human brain and also to deal with the complexity in which this information is assimilated. There are many different theories of choice heuristics, and some of these are discussed in the article. Some of these theories involve heuristics that are "deliberate", i.e. involve the elimination of aspects and slower cognitive processes, and some involve heuristics that are "automatic" and judgmental, i.e. that arise from cognitive processes that are rapid and not controllable. Judgmental heuristics is also referred to as `System 1' heuristics in the article, whereas deliberate heuristics is referred to as `System 2' heuristics. The authors give a very interesting overview of automated choice heuristics, involving choices that are based on immediate affective evaluation, and choices that are using the option that is first thought of. All of these discussions, as are all the others in the book, are extremely important.

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I am so satisfied with the quality
Reviewed in the United States on November 17, 2024
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I received the book in a really good condition, which was exactly same as the description. I appreciate the bookstore's care. Compared to the new book's price, I believe I had the best deal.

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Bob Weir
High quality content
Reviewed in the United States on July 27, 2017
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As it is academic not all papers are easy to read However very high quality content

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Bobby
Brilliant Treatise on Decision Making
Reviewed in the United States on January 18, 2013
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I based a whole module of my PhD in management on this book. The heuristics and biases described in this book can be turned into power conversations in management to affect decisions in real world situations. With my understanding of these concepts, I can now easily detect them in management discussions, which allows me the opportunity to clarify, amplify, and simplify decision making situations.

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onp
Good reference book, in an easy-to-read format
Reviewed in the United States on February 10, 2013
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This is a good reference book for a range of different psychological theories around the notion of "decision making under uncertainty". I use it to get a quick overview of a theory that sounds promising to draw upon for my own academic research in strategic management. Recommended!

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Juan M. Lleras
This book is for psychologists and fairly dull reading for laymen
Reviewed in the United States on April 21, 2014
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This book has a wide scope about the two systems of assessment of situations, cognitive biases, probabilities and similar judgmental analysis by human beings. It stresses on the unreliability of the "System 1" of the intuitive and fast judgement, versus the "System 2" of the purposeful analysis, with use of the appropriate analytical tools.

The book offers several papers of research in these areas, rather than a narrative of the many cognitive biases that we as human beings do in our daily life. Although the reading of the summary and some of the papers is enlightening, I found the experiment design, results explanation and presentation of conclusion blurred by the "academic" nature and scholarly writing of the book. Most of the papers were intended on providing proof of the writers proficiency on social psychology, than making a well structured readable account of their conclusions.

I am a Chemical Engineer and I am familiar and proficient in basic probability and assessment problems. Some of the tests the authors use, have ingrained in them a faulty design from the statistical point of view (options that include other options) , so that I was puzzled by some of the conclusions.

I don't deny the authors know their subject, but the result is fairly dull read for lay people, like me, who are interested in knowing the pitfalls of the cognitive biases in our daily life decisions, rather than reading one or two academic references in each sentence.

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18 people found this helpful

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Brian D. Labatte
A classic now in Kindle format
Reviewed in the United States on July 22, 2013
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Great book - well structured and published in Kindle format. Thanks you Amazon for putting this classic in electronic format.

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Lynette R. Stevenson
Excellent text for students of cognitive psychology
Reviewed in the United States on October 3, 2012
This collection of work makes for an excellent text book for students of cognitive psychology who wish to read and learn about the subject of heuristics and biases in human decision and judgment making. Heuristics and biases are common, predictable and robust phenomena which affect all manner of human functioning but their study can prove confusing for students. This book presents works by some of the world's leading scientists in this area in a clear and precise fashion, history of research, arguments for models and future research are all simply presented. Its a fine text.

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P aus M
"...intuitive judgement is often the only practical method for assessing uncertainty." (S.19)
Reviewed in Germany on February 10, 2020
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Man könnte sagen, dieses Buch ist die Grundlage für R. Dobellis 'Die Kunst des klaren Denkens'. Sicher, das eine ist (war) ein Bestseller, auch leicht zu lesen, aber eben auch oberflächlich und leider auch ohne jegliche Referenz auf die eigentlichen Quellen.
Letztlich geht es - wie immer im Leben - um Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit. Das ist hochspannend. Wir unterliegen in zahlreichen Situationen einem sogenannten Bias und greifen auf Heuristiken zurück. Dadurch kommt es zu Fehlentscheidungen.
Das Buch ist in drei Teile gegliedert: Teil 1: Theoretical and empirical extensions, Teil 2: New theoretical directions, Teil 3: Real world applications. Jeder Abschnitt teilt sich in weitere Kapitel und fast jedes dieser Kapitel liest sich wie ein Krimi.
Beispielhaft sei hier Kap. 14 erwähnt: ('The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence'). Letztlich werden Expertenmeinungen als 'often wrong, but rarely in doubt' - also 'keine Ahnung aber ohne jeden Zweifel' beurteilt. Und das wissenschaftlich - mit Zugriff auf Forschungsergebnisse von über 50 Jahren. Das überzeugt und man lernt viel über Menschen und warum sie so entscheiden, wie sie entscheiden. Kann man jedem empfehlen, dem Dobellis Werk zu oberflächlich ist.

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EOEP DE ANDORRA
Very good and complete investigation.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 30, 2014
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This book reflects all the last investigations about human judgment.
Very interesting. I hope somenone try to apply these theories to education in a future.

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星
大学院教材で買いました
Reviewed in Japan on April 15, 2014
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セカンドハンドでしたが、割れや書き込みのないいいものでしたー
安い値段で購入できて満足です

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K. L. Prasad
Five Stars
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 17, 2017
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great book

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Mr. Stephen G. Dale
Good reference book.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 14, 2015
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Very good reference book for anyone interested in heuristics.

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