Search Results

Taking Stock: Income Inequality and the Stock Market,
Michael Owyang and Hannah Shell, in Economic Synopses (2016)

Not your father's oil shock,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in Economic Synopses (2010)
Keywords: Petroleum products - Prices

Business cycle measures,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in Economic Synopses (2010)
Keywords: Business cycles

Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices,
Kevin Kliesen and Michael Owyang, in Economic Synopses (2011)
Keywords: Petroleum industry and trade; Petroleum products - Prices; Gasoline

When do recessions begin and end?,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in Economic Synopses (2010)
Keywords: Recessions

Can a summer hike cause a surprise fall for mortgage rates?,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in Monetary Trends (2004)
Keywords: Federal funds rate; Mortgages; Interest rates

Hard 'core' inflation,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in Monetary Trends (2005)
Keywords: Inflation (Finance)

What are the chances?,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in National Economic Trends (2007)
Keywords: Business cycles; Forecasting

Barreling down the road to recession?,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in National Economic Trends (2006)
Keywords: Recessions; Petroleum products - Prices

Look who's still working now,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in National Economic Trends (2007)
Keywords: Labor supply; Retirement; Labor market

Survey says,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in National Economic Trends (2005)
Keywords: Employment

Your current job probably won't be your last,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in National Economic Trends (2004)
Keywords: Employment

Look who's working now,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in National Economic Trends (2006)
Keywords: Labor supply; Labor market

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing,
Ivana Komunjer and Michael Owyang, from Department of Economics, UC San Diego (2007)
Keywords: multivariate forecast rationality, multivariate loss, asymmetries, Fed Transparency

FOMC Actions and Recent Movements in Five-Year Inflation Expectations,
Julie Bennett and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2022)
Keywords: inflation expectations; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

Is the U.S. in a Recession? What Key Economic Indicators Say,
Michael Owyang and Ashley Stewart, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2022)
Keywords: recessions

What Are the Long-run Trade-offs of Rent-Control Policies?,
Marie Hogan and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2024)
Keywords: rent control; housing affordability; housing supply; housing quality; rental housing

Job Quits, New-Business Applications and the Postpandemic Pace of U.S. Business Formation,
Marie Hogan and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2024)
Keywords: COVID-19; job quits; new business applications; business formation

Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Model: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle,
Neville Francis and Michael Owyang, in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2005)

Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy,
Michael Owyang and Howard Wall, in Applied Economics Letters (2009)

The Propagation of Regional Recessions,
James Hamilton and Michael Owyang, in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2012)
Keywords: university tuition, graduation rates

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing,
Ivana Komunjer and Michael Owyang, in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2012)
Keywords: forecast rationality, multivariate loss, asymmetries

Discussion of “An approach for identifying and predicting economic recessions in real‐time using time‐frequency functional models”by Holan, Yang, Matteson, and Wikle,
Eric Ghysels and Michael Owyang, in Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry (2012)

Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy,
Ana Galvão and Michael Owyang, in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2018)

WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE? A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF JOBLESS RECOVERIES,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2010)

Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities,
Andra Ghent and Michael Owyang, in Journal of Urban Economics (2010)
Keywords: Markov switching Time varying transition probabilities Leading indicator Recession

Who benefits from increased government spending? A state-level analysis,
Michael Owyang and Sarah Zubairy, in Regional Science and Urban Economics (2013)
Keywords: Fiscal policy; Structural VAR; Government spending;

Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement,
Michael Owyang and Garey Ramey, from Department of Economics, UC San Diego (2001)
Keywords: Markov proceses, regime switching

So much for that merit raise: the link between wages and appearance,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in The Regional Economist (2005)
Keywords: Wages; Discrimination in employment

Working hard or hardly working? the evolution of leisure in the United States,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in The Regional Economist (2007)
Keywords: Leisure; Hours of labor

Unconventional oil production: stuck in a rock and a hard place,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in The Regional Economist (2010)
Keywords: Energy industries

What's in a name? reconciling conflicting evidence on ethnic names,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in The Regional Economist (2006)
Keywords: Discrimination in employment

Dealing with the Leftovers: Residual Seasonality in GDP,
Michael Owyang and Hannah Shell, in The Regional Economist (2018)

Splitsville: the economics of unilateral divorce,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in The Regional Economist (2008)
Keywords: Public policy

A winning combination? economic theory meets sports,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in The Regional Economist (2009)
Keywords: Professional sports

Social changes lead married women into labor force,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in The Regional Economist (2006)
Keywords: Women - Employment

Extra credit: the rise of short-term liabilities,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, in The Regional Economist (2008)
Keywords: Credit

Measuring Trends in Income Inequality,
Michael Owyang and Hannah Shell, in The Regional Economist (2016)

China's Economic Data: An Accurate Reflection, or Just Smoke and Mirrors?,
Michael Owyang and Hannah Shell, in The Regional Economist (2017)

Not your father's pension plan: the rise of 401K and other defined contribution plans,
Leora Freidberg and Michael Owyang, in Review (2002)
Keywords: Pensions; Retirement

On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts,
Julie Bennett and Michael Owyang, in Review (2022)
Keywords: inflation; inflation forecasts

Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?,
Michael Owyang and Tatevik Sekhposyan, in Review (2012)
Keywords: Full employment policies; Recessions; Business cycles

Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries,
Kristie Engemann and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2007)
Keywords: Business cycles; Labor market

Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data,
Ana Galvão and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2022)
Keywords: mixed frequency models; recession; financial indicators; weekly activity index; event probability forecasting

Multivariate forecast evaluation and rationality testing,
Ivana Komunjer and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2007)
Keywords: time series analysis; Forecasting

Financial stress regimes and the macroeconomy,
Ana Galvão and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2014)
Keywords: factor-augmented VAR models; Smooth Transition VAR models; Gibbs variable selection; financial crisis

Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy,
Michael Owyang and Howard Wall, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2006)
Keywords: Monetary policy

Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities,
Andra Ghent and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2009)
Keywords: Housing; Housing - Prices; Business cycles

Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy,
Michael Owyang and Howard Wall, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004)
Keywords: Monetary policy; Regional economics; Economic conditions

Identifying technology shocks in the frequency domain,
Riccardo DiCecio and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2010)
Keywords: Business cycles; Technology - Economic aspects; Productivity

Regime switching and monetary policy measurement,
Michael Owyang and Garey Ramey, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2003)
Keywords: Phillips curve; Monetary policy

Who benefits from increased government spending? a state-level analysis,
Michael Owyang and Sarah Zubairy, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2009)
Keywords: Government spending policy; Expenditures, Public

Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle,
Neville Francis and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004)
Keywords: Monetary policy; Econometric models

The propagation of regional recessions,
James Hamilton and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2009)
Keywords: Business cycles; Recessions

Explaining the evolution of pension structure and job tenure,
Leora Friedberg and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004)
Keywords: Pensions; Retirement; Defined benefit pension plans; Defined contribution pension plans

Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR,
Michael McCracken, Michael Owyang and Tatevik Sekhposyan, in International Journal of Central Banking (2021)

Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage,
Amy Guisinger, Michael McCracken and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023)
Keywords: conditional encompassing; eurodollar futures; Fed information

Binary Conditional Forecasts,
Michael McCracken, Joseph McGillicuddy and Michael Owyang, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2021)
Keywords: Qual-VAR; recession; monetary policy; oil shocks

Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR,
Michael McCracken, Michael Owyang and Tatevik Sekhposyan, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2020)
Keywords: Stacked vector autoregression; Mixed-frequency estimation; Vector autoregression; Bayesian methods; Forecasting; Nowcasting; conditional forecasts

The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions,
Ruben Hernandez-Murillo and Michael Owyang, in Economics Letters (2006)

Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage,
Leora Friedberg, Michael Owyang and Tara Sinclair, in The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (2006)
Keywords: pension, contracts, on-the-job search, job tenure, matching models, job-to-job flows

Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data,
Michael Owyang, Valerie Ramey and Sarah Zubairy, from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013)

Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models,
Neville Francis, Michael Owyang and Daniel Soques, from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2023)

Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage,
Leora Friedberg, Michael Owyang and Tara Sinclair, from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005)

Measuring Potential Output,
Amy Guisinger, Michael Owyang and Hannah Shell, in Economic Synopses (2018)

Employment Revision Asymmetries,
Michael Owyang and E. Katarina Vermann, in Economic Synopses (2014)

Okun's law in recession and recovery,
Michael Owyang and E. Katarina Vermann, in Economic Synopses (2013)
Keywords: Recessions; Economic conditions

Symmetric inflation risk,
Abbigail J. Chiodo and Michael Owyang, in Monetary Trends (2003)
Keywords: Inflation (Finance)

Subject to revision,
Abbigail J. Chiodo and Michael Owyang, in National Economic Trends (2002)
Keywords: Gross domestic product

Financial aid and college choice,
Abbigail J. Chiodo and Michael Owyang, in National Economic Trends (2003)
Keywords: Education - Economic aspects

Putting off retirement: the rise of the 401(k),
Abbigail J. Chiodo and Michael Owyang, in National Economic Trends (2002)
Keywords: Pensions; Retirement

The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District,
Michael Owyang, Jeremy Piger and Howard Wall, in Regional Economic Development (2005)
Keywords: Federal Reserve District, 8th; Recessions

COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth?,
Julie Bennett, Michael Owyang and Hannah Shell, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2020)
Keywords: FREDcast; Forecast; Economic Growth; COVID-19; Coronavirus; gross domestic product (GDP)

Discordant city employment cycles,
Michael Owyang, Jeremy Piger and Howard Wall, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2010)
Keywords: City Employment Cycles

Where is an oil shock?,
Kristie Engemann, Michael Owyang and Howard Wall, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2011)
Keywords: State-Level Oil Shocks

Forecasting national recessions using state-level data,
Michael Owyang, Jeremy Piger and Howard Wall, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2012)
Keywords: turning points, probit, covariate selection

Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data,
Michael Owyang, Valerie Ramey and Sarah Zubairy, in American Economic Review (2013)

The Local Effects of Monetary Policy,
Francis Neville, Michael Owyang and Tatevik Sekhposyan, in The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (2012)
Keywords: Monetary policy channels, Bayesian structural vector auto regression, Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Composition

Un estudio de caso de una crisis monetaria: el incumplimiento ruso de 1998,
Abbigail J. Chiodo and Michael Owyang, in Boletín (2003)

Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States,
Michael Owyang, Jeremy Piger and Howard Wall, in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2005)

An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles,
Neville Francis, Michael Owyang and Ozge Savascin, in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2017)

Contagious switching,
Michael Owyang, Jeremy Piger and Daniel Soques, in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2022)

Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data,
Ana Beatriz Galvão and Michael Owyang, in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2022)

Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data,
Michael Owyang, Jeremy Piger and Howard Wall, in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2015)

Business Cycles across Space and Time,
Neville Francis, Michael Owyang and Daniel Soques, in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2022)

Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements,
Amy Guisinger, Michael Owyang and Daniel Soques, in Econometrics and Statistics (2024)
Keywords: cluster analysis; Markov-switching;

A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation,
Michael Owyang, Jeremy Piger and Howard Wall, in Regional Science and Urban Economics (2008)
Keywords: Volatility reduction State business cycles

Discordant city employment cycles,
Michael Owyang, Jeremy Piger and Howard Wall, in Regional Science and Urban Economics (2013)
Keywords: City employment cycles;

Are Government Spending Multipliers State Dependent? Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Historical Data,
Valerie Ramey, Sarah Zubairy and Michael Owyang, from Society for Economic Dynamics (2013)

Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns,
Leora Friedberg, Michael Owyang and Anthony Webb, from Center for Retirement Research (2008)