The emergence of a European region: Business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II

Matthias Morys and Martin Ivanov

Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers from CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York

Abstract: Relying on dynamic factor business cycle indices for five South-East European countries (Austria(-Hungary), Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Serbia/Yugoslavia), we document steadily increasing synchronisation as part of a pan-European business cycle before 1913 and the emergence of a regional business cycle (including and radiating from Germany) in the interwar period. These dynamics were largely driven by trade, involving initially England, France and Germany but increasingly centred on Germany. Our results also show that the Balkan countries travelled a long way from an economic backwater of Europe in the 1870s to a much more integrated part of the European economy six decades later.

Keywords: South-East European business cycle; national historical accounts; common dynamic factor analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C43 E32 N13 N14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Journal Article: The emergence of a European region: business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II (2015)
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