South-South migration and elections: evidence from post-apartheid South Africa

Bedasso Biniam E. and Jaupart Pascal ()
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Bedasso Biniam E.: Collaborative Africa Budget Reform Initiative (CABRI), Southdowns Ridge Office Park, Cnr John Vorster & Nellmapius Drive, Centurion, Pretoria 0062, South Africa
Jaupart Pascal: Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) and Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford. EnglandUnited Kingdom

IZA Journal of Development and Migration, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 47

Abstract: Little is known about the political consequences of immigration in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we estimate the effect of exposure to immigration on election outcomes in South Africa. Our analysis is based on municipality panel data and an instrumental variable (IV) strategy exploiting historical migrant settlement patterns. We find that local immigration concentration has a negative impact on the performance of the incumbent African National Congress, whereas support for the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, is found to increase in municipalities with a larger immigrant presence. These effects hold regardless of the skill levels of immigrants in a municipality. In terms of mechanisms, competition over jobs and local public services as well as ethnic diversity and cultural factors influence how immigration affects election outcomes. These findings are robust to a broad range of sensitivity checks. They provide evidence that immigration can be a politically salient issue in migrant-destination Sub-Saharan African countries. They also show that immigration can affect election results even in contexts where there is no single issue anti-migrant party.

Keywords: immigration; elections; South Africa; South-South migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F22 F68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:izajdm:v:11:y:2020:i:1:p:47:n:1

DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2020-0015

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