Assessing ECB?s Credibility During the First Years of the Eurosystem: A Bayesian Empirical Investigation

Gianni Amisano and Marco Tronzano

Working Papers from University of Brescia, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper extends Svensson (1994) ?simplest test?of in?ation target credibility inside a Bayesian econometric framework. We apply this approach to the initial years of the Eurosystem and obtain various estimates of ECB?s monetary policy credibility. Overall, our empirical evidence is robust to alternative prior assumptions, and suggests that the strategy followed by the ECB was successful in building a satisfactory degree of reputation. However, we find some significant credibility reversals concerning both anti-inflationary and anti-deflationary credibility. These reversals, in turn, are closely related to the evolution of the cyclical macroeconomic conditions in the Euro area.

Date: 2005
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-fmk, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.unibs.it/on-line/dse/Home/Inevidenza/Pa ... o/documento4599.html
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 403 Forbidden

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ubs:wpaper:ubs0512

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from University of Brescia, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Matteo Galizzi ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).