Testing for persistence in stock returns with GARCH-stable shocks

Prasad Bidarkota () and J. Huston McCulloch

Quantitative Finance, 2004, vol. 4, issue 3, 256-265

Abstract: We investigate persistence in CRSP monthly excess stock returns, using a state space model with stable disturbances. The non-Gaussian state space model with volatility persistence is estimated by maximum likelihood, using the optimal filtering algorithm given by Sorenson and Alspach (1971 Automatica 7 465-79). The conditional distribution has a stable α of 1.89, and normality is strongly rejected even after accounting for GARCH. However, stock returns do not contain a significant mean-reverting component. The optimal predictor is the unconditional expectation of the series, which we estimate to be 9.8% per annum.

Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1088/1469-7688/4/3/002 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:quantf:v:4:y:2004:i:3:p:256-265

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RQUF20

DOI: 10.1088/1469-7688/4/3/002

Access Statistics for this article

Quantitative Finance is currently edited by Michael Dempster and Jim Gatheral

More articles in Quantitative Finance from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().