Bubbles in UK house prices: evidence from ESTR models

David McMillan and Alan Speight

International Review of Applied Economics, 2010, vol. 24, issue 4, 437-452

Abstract: Recent movements in stock and house prices have led to an examination of the presence of bubbles. Whilst, there is extensive research on stock price data, there is relatively less for house prices. This paper uses a present-value model for house prices to test for the presence of bubbles. The results support the presence of a non-fundamental component within UK national and regional house prices. In particular, for the majority of series considered, evidence is presented of linear non-stationarity within the fundamental present-value relationship, and of non-linear stationarity, implying the presence of a non-fundamental, or bubble, component. Furthermore, evidence is presented that prices adjust quicker when they are below fundamental equilibrium, than when they are above fundamental equilibrium, i.e. there is downward price stickiness. These results support the hypothesis that house price dynamics can be characterised by price-to-price momentum. Finally, forecast evidence suggests that real prices are likely to adjust downwards and converge with fundamental value.

Keywords: house prices; present value model; ESTR model; momentum (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02692171.2010.483785 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:irapec:v:24:y:2010:i:4:p:437-452

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CIRA20

DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2010.483785

Access Statistics for this article

International Review of Applied Economics is currently edited by Professor Malcolm Sawyer

More articles in International Review of Applied Economics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().