Self-confirming Inflation Persistence

Rhys Bidder, Kalin Nikolov and Anthony Yates ()

CDMA Conference Paper Series from Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis

Abstract: In this paper we simulate a central bank subject to the misperception that prices are indexed to past inflation in periods when firms are unable to re-optimise. It thinks, in other words, that inflation is intrinsically persistent. The central bank sets monetary policy optimally subject to this belief. The central bank updates its beliefs about in¬dexation using a constant gain learning scheme. The data generated by such policy lead to beliefs about inflation persistence being effectively self-confirming in a wide variety of setttings. These results offer a tentative answer to why it appears that inflation is persistent at some times and in some countries, and at others not. The answer is that policymakers sometimes believe inflation to be persistent, and sometimes do not.

References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/CDMA/papers/cp0908.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:san:cdmacp:0908

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CDMA Conference Paper Series from Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis School of Economics and Finance, Castlecliffe, The Scores, Fife, KY16 9AZ. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by The School of Economics and Finance ().