An ARDL model of unrecorded and recorded economies in Turkey

Ferda Halicioglu and Dell’Anno, Roberto
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Roberto Dell'Anno

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Purpose: The goal of this paper is twofold: to estimate the unrecorded economy (UE) of Turkey over the period 1987-2007 using a revised version of the currency demand approach and to analyze the relationship between UE and recorded GDP. Design/methodology/approach: we propose to measure UE by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis. Toda- Yamamoto causality tests are also conducted to identify the relationship between unrecorded and recorded GDP. Findings: This research provides fresh evidence on the size of the UE to the recorded GDP in Turkey which ranges from 10.7% to 18.9% over the estimation period. Moreover, empirical evidence concretely suggests that causality runs from the recorded GDP to the UE. However, there exists a mild reverse causality. Research limitations/implications: Measures of the UE, and particularly those based on monetary approaches, have been criticized on several accounts, including their lack of robustness and weak theoretical foundations (e.g. the velocity of money in the recorded economy and in the UE is the same). Practical implications: The analysis suggests that the UE is pro-cyclical with respect to the recorded GDP. It suggests that the phenomenon of UE is more dangerous when the economy is in expensive phase. Hence, during a positive business cycle it is clearly desirable for government the anti-UE controls should be more effective. Originality/value: The ARDL approach to estimating the size of UE eliminates criticism that the previous currency demand estimations are based on partial adjustment models. Therefore, our econometric selected cointegration methodology and causality test is an improvement over the existing studies.

Keywords: Unrecorded economy; Currency demand approach; ARDL model; Economic Development; Turkey. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E26 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Journal Article: An ARDL model of unrecorded and recorded economies in Turkey (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:24982

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