Globalization? Trade war? A counterbalance perspective

Arthur Hu, Xingwei Hu and Hui Tong

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The embrace of globalization and protectionism among economies has ebbed and flowed over the past few decades. These fluctuations call for quantitative analytics to help countries improve their trade policies. Changing attitudes about globalization also imply that the best trade policies may vary over time and be country-specific. We argue that the imports and exports of all economies constitute a counterbalanced network where conflict and cooperation are two sides of the same coin. Quantitative competitiveness is then formulated for each country using a network counterbalance equilibrium. A country could improve its relative strength in the network by embracing globalization, protectionism, trade collaboration, or conflict. This paper presents the necessary conditions for globalization and trade wars, evaluates their side effects, derives national bargaining powers, identifies appropriate targets for conflict or collaboration, and recommends fair resolutions for trade conflicts. Data and events from the past twenty years support these conditions.

Keywords: globalization; trade war; counterbalance equilibrium; national competitiveness; bargaining power; authority distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C71 C78 F11 F13 F15 O24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gth and nep-int
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:114871

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