Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective

Bruno Lanz, Simon Dietz and Timothy Swanson

No 16-05, IRENE Working Papers from IRENE Institute of Economic Research

Abstract: How much will the global population expand, can all these extra mouths be fed, and what is the role in this story of economic growth? We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.

Keywords: Global population; Technological progress; Economic growth; Agriculture; Malthusian constraints; Land conversion; Structural estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C61 J11 O11 O13 Q15 Q24 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52 pages.
Date: 2016-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-evo
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Journal Article: GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH, TECHNOLOGY, AND MALTHUSIAN CONSTRAINTS: A QUANTITATIVE GROWTH THEORETIC PERSPECTIVE (2017)
Working Paper: Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective (2017)
Working Paper: Global Population Growth, Technology and Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective (2016)
Working Paper: Global Population Growth, Technology and Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective (2016)
Working Paper: Global Population Growth, Technology, and Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective (2015)
Working Paper: Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective (2014)
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