The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output: The Role of Reforms

Lorenzo E. Bernal-Verdugo, Davide Furceri and Dominique Guillaume

No 2013/091, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic effect of social and political instability on output. Using a panel of up to 183 countries from 1980 to 2010, the results of the paper suggest that social conflicts have a significant and negative impact on output in the short-term with the magnitude of the effect being a function of the intensity of political instability. The results also show that the recovery of output over the medium-term depends on the ability of the country to implement, in the aftermath of a social instability episode, reforms aimed at improving the level of governance. The results are robust to different checks and estimation strategies.

Keywords: WP; social conflicts; reforms; crisis; growth; governance indicator; adverse regime changes; governance reform; governance data; level of governance; political system; Production growth; Eastern Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41
Date: 2013-04-23
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40486 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/091

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().